analysis
Status: 05/08/2022 10:06 p.m
How can the CDU triumph be explained, like the SPD debacle? Did the young vote completely differently from the older ones? What was the impact of the Ukraine war? An analysis with infratest-dimap-Data.
In last year’s general election, it was noticeable that young people primarily voted for two parties: the Greens and the FDP. Union and SPD, on the other hand, had an above-average number of voters in the older age groups.
And in the state elections in Schleswig-Holstein? Unlike in the federal government, 16- and 17-year-olds are also allowed to vote here – and here, too, the young people have crossed the Greens and FDP with an above-average number of times.
According to the data from infratest dimap with 25 percent even clearly the strongest force, followed by the CDU – which, with 23 percent in this age group, only achieved half of what it received overall.
The third strongest force among young voters is the FDP, which at twelve percent did almost twice as well as in the general population. Younger people are also the only age group in which the FDP has not lost compared to 2017.
No dominant topic for voting decision
Both the Greens and the FDP seem to be able to win over young voters with their issues. It is true that there was not one dominant theme in this state election. What is striking, however, is that the voters of the CDU, SPD and SSW on the one hand and the Greens and FDP on the other hand differ significantly when it comes to the question of which topics were particularly important for their voting decision.
While SSW voters with 24 percent, CDU voters with 21 percent and SPD voters with 17 percent named the security of the energy supply as the most important issue, the Greens and FDP were the top issues, of which the younger generations in particular are affected: In the case of the Greens, climate protection clearly dominated with 56 percent, with FDP voters education policy was mentioned particularly often with 22 percent as the decisive reason for the election.
The CDU is the undisputed leader among older people
Incidentally, the age of the voters also plays a role in the outstanding election victory of the CDU. Because Schleswig-Holstein has a comparatively old population – and among the older voters, the CDU is completely unchallenged in the north: it gets more than 50 percent of the votes from the over-60s. Far behind here are the SPD and the Greens with 19 and 14 percent respectively.
Compared to 2017, however, the CDU is gaining in all age groups – but tends to be stronger among older than among younger people.
Definitely not a change of mood
The CDU benefits from two things in particular: its top candidate and the fact that there was definitely no change in mood in Germany’s northernmost state.
75 percent of those entitled to vote in Schleswig-Holstein are satisfied with the work of the black-green-yellow state government over the past five years. This is an absolute top value in the past two decades – ever since infratest dimap asks this question before state elections – has never reached a state government.
Approval for Günther – also from opposition supporters
It is also striking that the supporters of the two previous opposition parties, SPD and SSW, give the government good marks. Only AfD supporters are more skeptical here. But an approval of 36 percent for an incumbent government is an extremely high value for supporters of the AfD – which often positions itself as an “opposing party”.
75 percent are satisfied with Günther
The Jamaica coalition – an alliance that is generally considered difficult because of the sometimes very different orientations of the three parties – has succeeded in convincing the people in the country. This is largely thanks to the man at the top: Prime Minister Daniel Günther receives outstanding approval ratings.
Three quarters are satisfied with his work, and a similar number believe that he represented Schleswig-Holstein’s interests well. And for 54 percent of CDU voters, the candidate was the decisive reason for their decision, not the program – a value that rarely exists with this clarity.
Differentiation from the Merz course is rewarded
And also that Günther positions himself differently than the new CDU federal chairman Friedrich Merz comes to Schleswig-Holstein – both with CDU voters and with supporters of other parties. While Merz is considered conservative and rather confrontational, Günther has increasingly presented himself as a man of balance.
About 70 percent of all eligible voters and more than 90 percent of CDU voters attest that he stands for a modern, forward-looking CDU and that he has the ability to bring different positions together.
SPD convinces neither in terms of personnel nor content
The SPD, on the other hand, is struggling with a number of problems in Schleswig-Holstein. Although she is the Chancellor with Olaf Scholz, there is more headwind from Berlin – which is shown, for example, by the fact that only a good quarter of people in Schleswig-Holstein say that Olaf Scholz was a great support for the state SPD.
The decisive factor for the debacle of the SPD in the north, however, is that many voters believe that it currently has nothing to offer in terms of content or personnel. Only 21 percent are satisfied with the political work of the SPD’s top candidate, Lasse Müller – many in the country don’t even know him.
And when it comes to the attribution of expertise, the SPD has lost across the board compared to 2017. In many areas – especially such as the economy, work and finance – the values have practically halved. And instead of 34 percent like in 2017, only 16 percent now believe that the SPD is the party that can best solve the most important problems in the country.
Great trust in the energy competence of the Greens
The Greens, the second winner of this election evening, are completely different. Especially with rather “hard” topics, they have gained additional skills. The fact that her top candidate Monika Heinold has been finance minister in different governments for ten years may have played its part.
It is striking that the Greens are given similar powers to the CDU when it comes to energy supply. This in turn is probably partly due to the fact that the responsible federal minister in Berlin is a Green who comes from Schleswig-Holstein, where he was deputy prime minister for a long time and is currently leading the list of federal politicians: Robert Habeck. Incidentally, the Greens have gained votes in all age groups.
The FDP lacks the driving force
The FDP has also gained powers in many policy areas – like the Greens, also in the “hard” ones. The fact that she does not succeed in converting this into voices must have a lot to do with the staff. Your top candidate Bernd Buchholz is nowhere near the sympathy values of Wolfgang Kubicki, who ran as top candidate in 2017 and has since switched to federal politics.
There is no tailwind for the FDP in the north from there. Not even a third of those entitled to vote in Schleswig-Holstein believe that party leader Christian Lindner was a great support. And almost half of those entitled to vote and also 35 percent of FDP voters criticize the fact that, as finance minister, Lindner is not following the course that he had announced before the election.
Influence of the Ukraine war difficult to assess
It is difficult to say to what extent the Ukraine war influenced voting decisions. Although the war, its effects and Germany’s reaction to it played a major role in the election campaign, the relevant decisions are not made in Kiel but in Berlin. And so only nine percent of those entitled to vote in Schleswig-Holstein say that dealing with the war was the most important issue for them.
AfD voters in particular are afraid of rising prices
But there are, of course, issues that are indirectly related to the war and will at least partly have a say at the state level – such as energy supply and rising prices. Incidentally, the fear of rising prices was clearly the dominant issue among AfD voters at 42 percent.
Presumably, the issue of immigration played an even greater role for them. But since it didn’t play a role in the election campaign overall, it was in the polls that infratest dimap on behalf of the ARD carried out on the day of the election and in the days leading up to it, was not asked for separately.
Good marks for the Corona policy
The fact that the AfD, which has been struggling in the north from the start, is now probably even being thrown out of the state parliament again, is likely to have something to do with the fact that the central issues have broken away, in addition to the internal party dispute.
In addition to immigration, this was above all the Corona policy. She still played a role in this state election. But the Jamaica coalition gets good cross-party marks for its corona policy – and even AfD supporters are 41 percent satisfied with it.