analysis
Status: 05/15/2022 11:09 p.m
In North Rhine-Westphalia it looked like a neck-and-neck race between the CDU and SPD. How did the CDU manage to win so clearly? And what did the SPD and FDP cost so many votes?
Black-yellow and red-green – that there are two clearly recognizable camps has become rather rare in state elections. In North Rhine-Westphalia this has been the case so far – and it explains at least in part why the CDU clearly won the election – with a clear lead over the SPD.
Changed partners in the camp
Because many voters have apparently remained true to their camp, but have switched from one partner to the other. The CDU benefits from the weakness of the FDP, while the SPD in turn suffers from the strength of the Greens – and in particular from the very low turnout.
This is clearly shown by the so-called migration of voters infratest dimap on behalf of the ARD determined. According to preliminary figures, the CDU gets almost a quarter of a million votes from people who voted for the FDP in 2017. The SPD, on the other hand, loses voters to a similar extent to the Greens. And around 310,000 people who voted for the SPD in 2017 did not vote at all this time.
Since the mid-1990s only red-green or black-yellow
The fact that this two-camp logic has existed in NRW up to now can not only be seen from the fact that in the most populous federal state there has always been either a red-green coalition or a black-yellow coalition since the mid-1990s. Also various polls that infratest dimap carried out on election day and the days before prove that.
While, for example, in the election last week in Schleswig-Holstein, the incumbent coalition and its leader were rated quite well by supporters of opposition parties, the camps in North Rhine-Westphalia remain fundamentally recognizable: FDP and, above all, CDU voters give the incumbent black and yellow state government and its boss Hendrik Wüst tend to get good grades, voters from the Greens and SPD tend to get bad grades. And these camps are also evident on many important issues, such as the question of whether or not to stick with the nuclear phase-out.
Great importance of federal political issues
However, as in Schleswig-Holstein, there was not just one dominant issue for the voters in North Rhine-Westphalia. But it is very clear that issues that are directly or at least indirectly related to the Russian war of aggression in Ukraine played a role – such as security of energy supply, which was an important reason for CDU voters in particular.
The price increases played an important role for supporters of the FDP, where almost a third named it as the most important reason, but above all for voters of the AfD, where it was almost half. Similar to climate policy, however, these are issues where the important decisions are more likely to be made in Berlin than in Düsseldorf.
The influence of federal politics on this election is likely to have been correspondingly large, from where there is currently only a clear tailwind for the Greens. In North Rhine-Westphalia, only educational policy is a classic state political issue that is given comparatively great importance by the voters.
The program was decisive for the Greens
When it comes to competencies – i.e. the question of who the citizens trust to solve a certain problem most likely – there is a very clear winner: the Greens, who are also the big winner of the election overall. In practically all areas of competence, they have increased significantly compared to the 2017 election – in some cases the values have more than doubled here.
In three of the subject areas surveyed, they are even ahead of all other parties: in their core issues of climate/environment, but also in energy supply and traffic problems. And for 78 percent of Green voters, the party’s program was the deciding factor. So here lies a decisive factor for the success of the Greens.
CDU with high competencies in core areas
For CDU and SPD voters, on the other hand, long-term party loyalty and the candidate played a greater role. Here, too, the program was the most important factor. Both parties have suffered more or less large losses in all areas of competence compared to 2017 – albeit at a relatively high level. In core areas such as the economy, jobs or education policy, the CDU and SPD remain well ahead of all other parties despite the losses.
And when it comes to the “meta-question” of who is most likely to be able to solve the most important tasks in NRW, the CDU with 30 percent and the SPD with 27 percent are still clearly ahead of the Greens with ten percent and the FDP and AfD with five percent each.
The picture looks different when you ask which party has the best answers to the questions of the future. Here the Greens are a clear distance ahead of the CDU. But no matter which of these questions you look at: the CDU does not do badly anywhere – another argument for its election victory.
Miserable rating for school policy of the FDP
There is one topic at the FDP that probably cost you a lot of votes: school policy, for which you have been responsible under your minister Yvonne Gebauer for the past five years. Two thirds of those entitled to vote in NRW and almost half of the FDP voters say that the FDP failed here in times of the corona pandemic.
In the case of the CDU, the Corona policy in particular is generally viewed critically. 60 percent of those entitled to vote say that the CDU has lost their trust here. However, the former Prime Minister Armin Laschet, who has been accused of a zigzag course in the past, is probably responsible for this, and not the incumbent Hendrik Wüst.
No “office bonus” for Wüst, but…
People did not play such a prominent role in this election as they did a week ago in Schleswig-Holstein, where the overwhelming victory of the CDU was due in large part to the popularity of Prime Minister Daniel Günther.
In North Rhine-Westphalia, on the other hand, only 48 percent are satisfied with the work of the incumbent Prime Minister, Wüst – a far cry from Günther’s 75 percent. And even if you compare all other state elections of the past five years, Wüst is in one of the last places – with a similarly low rating as Tobias Hans in the Saar election in spring and Markus Söder in the Bavarian election in 2018.
Wüst “got into the office well”
Wüst does not bring an official bonus with him. Nevertheless, he plays an important role in the fact that the CDU was able to increase the gap to the SPD so much in the last few meters. Because you have to take into account that Wüst was only in office for a good six months as the successor to CDU candidate for chancellor Laschet. And at least 61 percent of those entitled to vote in North Rhine-Westphalia attest that he has settled into office well in this short time – including many who are not CDU supporters.
The fact that the CDU has succeeded in making significant gains compared to the pre-election polls may have a lot to do with the fact that Wüst has managed to make a name for himself in the past few weeks.
Voters don’t even know many candidates
In addition, Wüst still scores best of all state politicians in the assessment of the people in NRW and also has by far the highest level of awareness. For at least a third of those who actually voted for the CDU, he was the decisive reason for the voting decision – not an outstanding value as with Günther in Schleswig-Holstein, but not bad either.
The top candidates of all other parties, on the other hand, suffer from the fact that many people in the country do not even know them. This also applies to a limited extent to SPD man Thomas Kutschaty, with whose political work 38 percent are still satisfied.
AfD always no longer a pure protest party
In addition to the CDU, SPD, Greens and FDP, the AfD will again be represented in the state parliament as a fifth party. As everywhere, it also binds the group of generally dissatisfied people in NRW. There are significantly more of these in NRW than in Schleswig-Holstein, where the AfD failed at the five percent hurdle. In NRW, however, she only just manages to jump over this hurdle.
This time, however, she can hardly score outside of her core clientele, some of whom are far right. At best, she succeeds in doing so with her restrictive attitude on the subject of refugees and her commitment to combating corona restrictions – two issues that did not play a major role in the election. But the AfD is no longer a pure protest party in North Rhine-Westphalia either. On some issues, voters perceive her as more competent. When it comes to internal security, for example, eight percent now believe it can come up with the best solutions. That’s far from the 42 percent of the CDU, but still twice as much as for the FDP – and more than the election result of the AfD.
Only the Greens, unfortunately, not among the turnout
In addition to the SPD, it is also the FDP and AfD that suffer particularly from the low turnout. According to preliminary figures, they lost 130,000 and 160,000 former voters respectively to the non-voter camp. Measured by the percentages that both achieve in the election, that’s a lot.
The only party that didn’t suffer from the low turnout is the Greens. They even manage to get around 30,000 people to go to the polls who did not vote in 2017. And the Greens are also succeeding to a large extent in attracting voters from the other political camp – which is not statistically surprising given the tripling of the election result: around 100,000 come from the FDP, 140,000 from the CDU.
The time of the red-green/black-yellow camp logic has come to an end in North Rhine-Westphalia as of today – this can be seen with a view to the possible coalitions. Because according to the result of the election, alliances of two are now possible: black-red or black-green.