Weather forecasts, when they relate to a cabinet reshuffle – or outright a change in government (his version) – are always to be taken with great caution. If we are talking about a movement by the end of the “100 days” announced by Emmanuel Macron in mid-April, i.e. before July 14, nothing has yet been confirmed. Nothing either on the extent of a possible change. Waiting for, 20 minutes went to sound out the majority, to find out who they would see staying and who they would see leaving the government.
They don’t seem threatened
“You have to take the question the other way around and ask us who gave satisfaction, it’s simpler”, stings a Macronist deputy when asked who he would see jumping in the next reshuffle.
The two main heads of government, Bruno the Mayorfor six years – a record – in the Economy, and Gerald Darmanin, for three years inside, do not seem threatened. However, the two had a very mixed start to the year. The first is the laughingstock of part of the political and media scene because of certain passages from his latest book, american fugue. The second is despite everything entangled in his immigration bill, constantly postponed for lack of majority.
But the two, in government since the arrival of Emmanuel Macron at the Elysée, are solid pillars of macronism. Bruno Le Maire is the mastermind of the doctrine “no tax increase, ever”, and Gérald Darmanin carries the iron against opposition to the Assembly. Similarly, the name of Gabriel Attal, Minister Delegate for the Budget, is often quoted to rise in rank. He is one of the few ministers who, when he is “on the bench” of the National Assembly, wakes up the majority.
More discreet, Sebastien Lecornu can – unless surprised – sleep peacefully. He was able to skillfully manage the military programming law, a very large piece at 413 billion euros, massively voted by the Assembly. Rima Abdul Malak, the Minister of Culture, has made a name for herself by standing up to the Palme d’Or Justine Triet or the intermittent workers at Molières. that of sports, Amelie Oudea-Castera, recorded some successes in its showdown against some failing federations. And then a few weeks from the Rugby World Cup, and a year from the Olympic and Paralympic Games, not sure it’s time to change.
They may have something to worry about
They are clearly more numerous. If only because in the majority, we would not be offended to see the government lose weight a little: There are currently 41 people in the government, all ranks (Prime Minister, Ministers, Deputy Ministers, Secretaries of State) combined. For the rest, the few deputies or deputies of the majority who are willing to risk themselves in this discussion specify it: these ministers have not necessarily failed personally, but are “not adapted to the political context” of relative majority.
As such, there is one for whom the form is the substance: the Minister for Relations with Parliament, Frank Riester. It is from him that came the main “bugs” of the government during the pension crisis, for example when he conceded that the reform would be unfavorable to women. A deputy rolls his eyes when he is mentioned: “Ah yes… We like him, he’s our Franky to us. But it is true that it is complicated…”. The one who really collects all the votes against him is Pap Ndiaye. “When you have been at the National Education for a year and the French do not know you, it is because he has a problem”, remarks a macronist executive.
Another subject that macronie wants to put forward, but which is considered to be weighed down by a minister who is not up to it: the ecological transition. The position of Christophe Bechu looks precarious. Ditto on Housing, in the midst of a crisis, whose current holder is Olivier Klein. Others consider that the good word of the President of the Republic on the international scene, where he is very active, deserves a more “muscular” duo at the Quai d’Orsay: a departure from Catherine ColonnaForeign Affairs, and Laurence Boonein European Affairs, would therefore not only make people unhappy.
Two ministers are particularly hampered by cases. First of all Marlene Schiappa, embroiled in the affair of the Marianne Fund; it’s hard to believe she can make it through the summer. “Wow” effect of the Castex government, the Keeper of the Seals, Eric Dupond-Moretti, is still indicted for illegal taking of interest. His middle finger to the president of the LR group, in March, did not help his position. Finally, the performance ofOlivier Veran to the spokesperson is also highly criticized. “He made a bad calculation by staying in government: he thought he would lose his legislative when he left. He was damaged in this position, ”judges the executive quoted above.