Since coming to power, the Taliban have been trying to show their way. The new rulers of Afghanistan are striving to reassure the Afghans, and by extension the international community, of the way in which they intend to govern the country. At a press conference Tuesday in Kabul, Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid announced “a general amnesty” and promised that Afghans who worked for the West would not be prosecuted. He also assured that women would not be forced to wear the full veil and that they would have rights in accordance with Islamic law, such as work and study.
A discourse very different from the policy pursued in the 90s when they were in power. While several Western countries have said they are waiting to see if the Taliban keep their word, this shift in focus could well affect the Taliban’s diplomatic relations with the rest of the world. A situation that would suit both the fundamentalist Islamist movement and the international community.
What mistakes of the past do the Taliban want to avoid?
When they were in power between 1996 and 2001, the Taliban were “completely isolated diplomatically”, assures Karim Pakzad, researcher at the Institute of International and Strategic Relations (IRIS) and specialist in Afghanistan. At the time, only three countries recognized them: Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. “Apart from them, the Taliban had no diplomatic representation in any of the 193 countries of the United Nations General Assembly,” indicates Georges Lefeuvre, anthropologist and associate researcher at IRIS specializing in Afghanistan.
At the time there was therefore a Taliban ambassador in Islamabad (Pakistan), Dubai (United Arab Emirates) and another in Riyadh (Saudi Arabia). “But, elsewhere, they had no diplomatic representation worthy of the name. Simply what one calls an itinerant ambassador, which allowed to have a minimum of exchange with the United States Brussels or Paris ”, recalls Georges Lefeuvre also ex-political adviser of the Delegation of the European Union in Pakistan .
Which countries have the Taliban already prepared the ground with?
Several years before embarking on the dazzling recovery of the country, the Taliban had already set about polishing their diplomatic relations internationally. “Even before arriving in Kabul, they had contacts and relations with many Asian countries,” assures Karim Pakzad. Besides Pakistan, the Taliban have been invited several times to China, Russia and even distant Muslim countries like Indonesia. “
Taliban representatives are now very comfortable in international palaces, which was not the case in 2001. “You see them in Qatar in luxurious palaces, where meetings take place, there is absolutely no problem, says Georges Lefeuvre. They go to Istanbul and Ankara in Turkey, or to Tashkent in Uzbekistan, they travel everywhere. Their political office is based in Doha, Iran, a country where they have also already been received by Mohammad Djavad Zarif, foreign minister who is someone of high rank. “They now have an undeniable diplomatic presence in the absence of official representation of embassies,” adds Georges Lefeuvre.
Who might the Taliban have diplomatic relations with first?
It is quite likely that the three countries which had already recognized the Taliban government between 1996 and 2001, do so again. First on the list: Pakistan. “The country is the Taliban’s rear base so they have very good relations with them,” notes Victoria Fontan, professor and vice-president of studies and research at the American University of Afghanistan in Kabul. For Karim Pakzad, “if the Taliban play power intelligently, these countries which have already received them will be the first to establish relations with them”.
According to Victoria Fontan, there will very certainly soon be a Taliban ambassador in China and Russia. As a sign of their desire to maintain good relations with the Taliban, the two countries said on Monday that they were maintaining their embassies in Kabul, at the same time when most Western countries were hastily evacuating their nationals. “Russia does not want a conflict to extend to the republics of Central Asia,” analyzes the expert. She is therefore trying to have good relations and to normalize the image of the Taliban internationally. “
For China, it’s a double-edged sword. Beijing currently has apprehensions about its region of Xinjiang which has a common border with Afghanistan and where at least a million Uyghurs have passed through anti-Islamist “re-education camps” according to Western experts. However, the Taliban regime has maintained close relations with Uyghur Islamist militants based in Afghanistan, which necessarily worries China. Especially since Beijing has economic interests on Afghan soil. “There is a copper mine currently operated by the Chinese south of Kabul,” says Victoria Fontan.
Could the Taliban eventually have diplomatic relations with the entire international community?
The promises of the Taliban leaders are not the only weight that could tip the scales for recognition of the Taliban government by the international community. “Afghanistan is the Congo of Asia. Natural resources on Afghan soil are estimated at 2,000 billion dollars that have yet to be exploited. Copper and lots of different minerals, ”explains Victoria Fontan. Blocked until today due to years of civil war, operations and trade could resume between Afghanistan and the rest of the world, provided the regime is recognized.
Among them, pending projects, such as the pipeline of the American oil company Unocal supposed to link Turkmenistan to Pakistan, via Afghanistan. A construction agreement was reached with the Taliban in 1998, but the project was suspended a few months later after the first US Air Force bombings on the Afghan bases of bin Laden. “Nobody has an interest today in this international recognition not being done”, analyzes the professor.
Moreover, far from being dismissed by Europeans and Americans, the question is already on the table. After meeting in recent days with French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and US President Joe Biden, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson called for a “unified approach” by the international community to recognize or not the new regime. “We will judge this regime on the choices it makes and on its actions, rather than on its words,” he added. If this international recognition were to be given, Victoria Fontan warns on the fact that future economic partners will not have to “let themselves be put to sleep” by the Taliban and react by different levers in the event of human rights violations.