After the AfD electoral success in the district elections in Sonneberg, a possible victory for the party is also imminent in other districts and cities. The established parties are already looking forward to next year’s state elections in Brandenburg, Saxony and Thuringia, where the AfD could also succeed and even become the strongest party.
Three places where the AfD could soon rule
The next district election in Brandenburg will take place in around three months, on October 8th in the district of Dahme-Spreewald. In the neighboring Oder-Spree district, it was already tight in mid-May this year when the AfD candidate Rainer Galla lost 47.6 percent of the votes to his opponent Frank Steffen from the SPD in the runoff election for the district office.
In Dahme-Spreewald, the AfD is currently the second strongest force in the district council. In the 2019 European elections, she was even ahead with 20.7 percent of the votes, in the same year also in the Dahme-Spreewald III state constituency, where the candidate Hans-Christoph Berndt won the direct mandate with 28.9 percent. Berndt has been the AfD parliamentary group leader in the state parliament since 2020 and heads the association “Zukunft Heimat”, which the Brandenburg Office for the Protection of the Constitution has classified as “proven right-wing extremist”.
The long-standing District Administrator Stephan Loge (SPD), who won the office at the first attempt in the last election, is no longer running this time – that could increase the chances for the AfD. The fact that she has high hopes for the post of district administrator can be seen in the fact that she is nominating a federal politician as a candidate: Steffen Kotré. He is economic and energy policy spokesman for the AfD parliamentary group. Such a switch back to the municipal level is unusual.
178,000 people live in the district of Dahme-Spreewald, more than three times as many as in the district of Sonneberg. It extends to the city of Berlin, includes Königs Wusterhausen and Berlin Airport BER in Schönefeld. In May, the region made headlines when local residents racially abused Berlin’s 10th graders at a holiday camp in Heidesee.
In Saxony, most district administrators were already elected in 2022. There are mayoral elections in many places here in 2023 – the most important in November in the city of Pirna, which has a population of 40,000. In the most recent federal election, the AfD won a direct mandate in the local constituency, and in Pirna itself the candidate Steffen Janich received 31.1 percent of the vote. The AfD is also the strongest faction in the city council. In the 2019 local elections, she received 19.6 percent, a list that emerged from ex-party leader Frauke Petry’s party split got a further 9.9 percent.
As in Dahme-Spreewald, the previous incumbent is also retiring in Pirna. During the corona crisis, Klaus-Peter Hanke sought dialogue in the deeply divided city, but also signed an appeal from restaurateurs and retailers who warned that the “hygiene demonstrations” could keep tourists away. Opponents insulted, pushed and hit police officers in Pirna, in May 2020 the nationwide photo of Prime Minister Michael Kretschmer with an aluminum hat was taken here.
Tim Lochner, who left the CDU in 2016 and claims to have attended Pegida demonstrations before, is now standing for the AfD. Lochner was also the leader of a demonstration against the Corona measures and was fined for taking part in another unauthorized demonstration.
In Thuringia, the next district and mayoral elections will take place in spring 2024. In the last election in 2018, the AfD did best in the 91,000-inhabitant city of Gera. Their candidate lost 30.2 percent to the current mayor, Julian Vonarb, in the runoff. Deputy AfD spokesman Stephan Brandner sits in the Bundestag for the city. He was directly elected in the constituency and received 29.6 percent of the votes from the people of Gera. He is considered a confidant of faction leader Björn Höcke.
Which state parliaments the AfD could move into as the strongest force
At the state level, the parliaments in Bavaria and Hesse will be elected this year, on October 8th. In both federal states, the party is far from having any power options. In Bavaria, the AfD is 12 percent in the most recent poll, and in the last state election in 2018 it had already achieved 10 percent of the vote.
But Bavaria has a special feature in the federal structure. Here the free voters sit in the state parliament and even in the state government. Your strong man, Vice Prime Minister Hubert Aiwanger, has recently been using politically skeptical, right-wing populist rhetoric. That was the case when he appeared at the demo against the heating law in Erding in mid-June. Here Aiwanger demanded that “the silent great majority of this country” must “take back democracy”. With such statements, Aiwanger fishes in the potential voters of the AfD. Surveys recently saw the free voters in Bavaria at eleven percent, roughly at the level of the 2018 election (11.6 percent).
A new state parliament is also being elected in Hesse, where the AfD was once founded. Here the AfD is 13 percent in the last survey, and thus at the level of the 2018 election (13.1 percent).
The political situation and mood in the eastern states of Brandenburg, Saxony and Thuringia, which will elect their state parliaments in September 2024, are completely different. The AfD was already the strongest party in Saxony and Thuringia (in Brandenburg the SPD) in the 2021 federal elections.
In Brandenburg, the AfD is between 23 and 25 percent in the last polls, in Saxony between 24 and 28 percent, in Thuringia most recently at 28 percent. As things stand, the AfD could become the strongest faction in all state parliaments. So will we get the first state parliament presidents of the AfD in 2024? The already difficult task of forming a government is likely to become even more complex.
The AfD could already achieve nationwide success in the European elections in June 2024. The European elections often have a low turnout, which strengthens protest parties. Already in 2019, the AfD got eleven percent nationwide. On the day of the European elections, citizens in nine federal states will vote through their municipal representations, including in Baden-Württemberg and all eastern states except Berlin. As of now, this should bring the AfD numerous mandates in city councils and district councils.