Lauterbach proposal
When vaccinations should be compulsory so that they take effect in good time
Federal Minister of Health Karl Lauterbach (SPD) advocates the rapid introduction of compulsory vaccination
© Hannibal Hannschke / AFP
The corona numbers in Germany are increasing rapidly. Health Minister Lauterbach is calling for vaccinations to be compulsory “around April, maybe in May” in order to avert a possible new wave next autumn. Too late?
The concern is now in six figures: For the first time since the beginning of the corona pandemic, more than 100,000 new infections were registered in Germany, as the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) announced on Wednesday. A record with announcement.
The much more contagious omicron variant is rampant, having replaced Delta as the dominant virus variant while a too large a proportion of the population has not yet been vaccinated. What follows?
According to Health Minister Karl Lauterbach (SPD), the infection curve should continue to point upwards for a while: “I think we will reach the peak of the wave in mid-February,” he said on Tuesday evening on the “RTL Direkt” program, “and then the number of cases could fall again”.
In order to avert a possible new wave in autumn, Lauterbach pleaded for the timely introduction of a general obligation to vaccinate. According to the Minister of Health, a corresponding regulation would have to come into force “in April or around April, maybe in May” so that it takes effect in good time.
The hypothesis: Anyone who has not yet been vaccinated must “go through three vaccination cycles (…) and by then it will be in September or October,” says Lauterbach. A full vaccination must include three doses, he previously told the “Picture on Sunday”.
“Mid-February is very realistic”
The virologist Ulf Dittmer from the University Hospital Essen can gather behind the time window that Lauterbach has issued. “For the omicron wave, general vaccination comes too late anyway,” said the scientist at the request of the star. With a view to possible new corona waves, the obligatory piksen “should have to come into force in June 2022 so that there is still enough time for vaccinations”, so that a similar situation can be prevented in the coming autumn. “Last year we saw the beginning of the first wave again in August,” said the virologist.
The virologist also considers the point in time at which the peak of the current wave of infections could be reached to be plausible. The development in England serves as a good comparison: that’s where it is Plateau reached around January 7th, before the number of cases fell again – the infection process is about four to five weeks ahead of us. “Mid-February is very realistic,” says Dittmer.
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According to the virologist, the critical infrastructure must be protected by appropriate measures, “then we can survive this wave – or rather wall – without any major medical problems, since the course of the disease is much milder.” At present, there are many indications of a milder course of the disease in the omicron variant (read here what that means exactly).
Gerárd Krause sees the vaccine organization as a decisive factor in resisting future waves – and making an instrument like compulsory vaccination possible in the first place. “The question of what needs to happen in order to ensure adequate vaccination protection in the particularly unprotected target groups in good time may depend more on how well we organize our vaccination offers in the future,” said the epidemiologist from the Helmholtz Institute for Infection Research star.
It is also important to note how well a vaccine works against future virus variants and, above all, how long this protection lasts. “If you want to be prepared to be able to resort to mandatory vaccination if necessary, then it would certainly be good to already ensure the relevant legal basis with the associated activation criteria,” says the epidemiologist.
Tough struggle for a general obligation to vaccinate
The struggle for a general obligation to vaccinate, for its possible introduction and design, does not stop. Lauterbach and Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) advocate general vaccination. However, there should be no government proposal from the red-green-yellow coalition. Instead, groups of MPs should bring motions to Parliament on the subject. The Union had criticized this approach verbosely.
Lauterbach shares the opinion of experts such as the Berlin virologist Christian Drosten that at some point everyone will become infected. However, that does not mean that vaccination is unnecessary. “There is still no basic immunity, especially for the elderly and sick,” warned the minister, who therefore called for a quick decision by the Bundestag to introduce compulsory vaccination.
Lauterbach also warned that more new variants of the corona virus could emerge by the fall. “Then we would be left empty-handed when we again have the large number of unvaccinated people that we have to protect to prevent the health system from being overloaded.”
“I believe that the German Bundestag should vote on general vaccination against the corona virus after thorough consultation in March,” said the Greens health expert Janosch Dahmen the editorial network Germany (RND) on Wednesday. If you want to keep to this time frame, “it would make sense to discuss the group applications for the first time in February”. Lauterbach said with a view to the upcoming deliberations in parliament: “I would say that we will see important debates there at the end of February/beginning of March.”
The SPD parliamentary group had already mentioned the goal of finalizing the decision in March. Next week, Wednesday, there will be a first orientation debate in the Bundestag. SPD faction deputy Dirk Wiese told the RND that he expected further specific group applications afterwards.
The traffic light alliance is aiming for a vote without the usual group discipline and justifies this by saying that it is an ethical question. There are also different views on the subject within the coalition – some FDP politicians expressed sympathy for compulsory vaccination only for older people, while other FDP MPs around party vice-president Wolfgang Kubicki completely reject compulsory vaccination.