Shortly after Russia began massing troops along the Ukrainian border, several amphibious warfare vessels anchored in the waters of the Baltic Sea. Some of them approaching Sweden. These maritime movements added to a series of recent flights of drones of unknown origin over Swedish nuclear power plants have finished making the Scandinavian kingdom nervous, awakening old fears of Russian incursion.
The Swedish armed forces reported in mid-January that six Russian amphibious warfare ships had left their naval base in Kaliningrad, the Russian enclave wedged between Poland and Lithuania, and entered the Baltic Sea. Although it was not uncommon for Russian ships to move through the area, their numbers were quite unusual.
Sweden immediately took these movements as warning signals, referring to the “change in the security situation in Europe and the Baltic Sea”, and reacted by strengthening its military presence on the island of Gotland, in the southeast. In less than 48 hours, the island of 60,000 people saw patrolling soldiers and armored tanks arrive, scenes not seen for decades.
“Before it was quite common to see soldiers [ici], but that’s not really the case anymore. These days, it surprises a lot,” said a resident of the national daily Dagens Nyheter.
Drones of unknown origin
At the same time, the Swedish police have received several reports of particularly large drone flights over the three nuclear power plants, but also over at least two airports, the Greater Stockholm area and the Palace of the royal family in Drottningholm (west of Stockholm). The origin of the drones has not been established, and on January 17, the Swedish intelligence agency has announced that it has taken up the investigation.
The incidents have made Sweden nervous. In recent weeks, speculation has swirled about what a potential threat from Russia could mean for the country of 10 million people. While some newspapers were discussing the possible lifespan of the Swedish defense in the event of a Russian attack, others were analyzing the underlying reasons why Sweden might be an interesting military target. Some media also held live chats, in which defense experts answered questions from a public worried about an increasingly tense security situation in the region.
The discussions on Swedish membership in NATO have also resurfaced, as is often the case. But this time around, the debate has been fueled more by Russia’s insistence that the transatlantic military alliance not welcome any new members, including Ukraine. Although the Socialist-led government recently reiterated its longstanding position that Sweden must remain “without covenant”, most Swedes believe that joining NATO should be a Swedish decision, not a Russian one.
On Monday, the Swedish Foreign Minister, Ann Linde, and her Finnish counterpart, Pekka Haavisto, whose country is also not a member of NATO, demonstrated this point by meeting the Secretary General of the Atlantic Alliance, Jens Stoltenberg, in Brussels for a “dialogue” on the “deepening of their partnership”.
“The Russians are coming”, a common Swedish expression
Sweden’s concerns about Russia date back hundreds of years, mainly due to conflicting expansion plans on what is now Finland. Russia eventually won, robbing Sweden of its status as a European superpower. Since, “The Russians are coming!” (Ryssen kommer) has become a common Swedish expression.
At the height of the Cold War in the 1980s, and as the Soviet Union and the United States raced to become the world’s first nuclear superpower, Sweden’s proximity to Russia, and the sighting of several alleged Russian submarines in the Stockholm archipelago, had then pushed fears to a fever pitch among the Swedes.
Malin Rising, a Swedish journalist, grew up in the coastal town of Nynäshamn (60 km south of Stockholm), and remembers these tensions. “I remember how my friends and I would climb the cliffs and look out over the Baltic to see if we could spot any submarines. [russes]. That was how we played back then,” she explains. “I also remember people explaining where to find the nearest shelter in case the Russians arrive,” she continues.
Several of these shelters have since been converted into data centers, symbols of Sweden’s changing perception of the dangers posed by Russia.
In 2010, more than twenty years after the fall of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War, Sweden’s fear of Russians had somewhat dissipated, and the government decided to abolish military service mandatory, in place since 1901.
But barely seven years later, the country reactivated military conscription, citing the 2014 annexation of the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea by Russia and increased Russian military activity around Sweden. The kingdom decided to make this conscription mixed but also to restore a garrison on the island of Gotland (in the middle of the Baltic Sea, opposite Kaliningrad).
Who controls Gotland has free access to the Baltic countries
The island of Gotland, and its geographically strategic location in the Baltic Sea, is at the heart of Sweden’s fears of Russia. It is located only 300 kilometers north of the naval base of Kaliningrad (Russian territory), and, to the east, facing the three Baltic countries (former Soviet countries) which are Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.
In other words: who controls Gotland has free access to the Baltic countries.
But there is more than that. All three countries are members of NATO, which means that other members – including the United States – would be obliged to come to their aid in the event of an attack, under section 5 on collective defence.
“To help its allies, the United States would have to send jets – fast – and fly over the Baltic. But if the Russians took control of Gotland, they could use anti-aircraft missiles and coastal robots, which would make it very difficult for Americans access to and defense of the Baltic,” says Magnus Christiansson, a military strategy researcher at Sweden’s National Defense College in Stockholm.
Magnus Christiansson also explains that a Russian takeover of the Baltic countries would be devastating for the world order: “It would totally crush the credibility of NATO, there would be nothing left of it, since it is built on the basis of Article 5, ‘All for one, one for all’. That would be a disaster.”
The researcher adds that if it turned out that the Russians were actually behind the reported drone flights, it would most likely be an attempt to intimidate the Swedes, nothing else. “Of course, they already know where the power stations are, and doesn’t everyone know where the royal palace is? He jokes. It’s just a little easy way to throw someone off balance It’s psychological,” he concludes.
On January 18, the six Russian amphibious warfare ships left the Baltic Sea. But the Swedish troops on Gotland, they, remained in place.
Article translated by Mathias HOSXE – To read the article in its original version, click here.