USDA October data and forecasts show slightly lower production, slightly lower consumption, stable trade and shrinking inventories for the global wheat market for the current 2022/23 season. The global wheat harvest was reduced by 1.9 million tons to almost 782 million tons.
The reason for this is a significantly smaller wheat harvest in the USA and a drop in production in Argentina. Overall, however, production remains at a record level. Argentina’s harvest was reduced by 1.5 million tons to 17.5 million. This is due to reductions in both area harvested and yield with widespread drought. The US crop was revised down from 48.5 million tons to 44.9 million tons two weeks ago by the USDA in the Small Grain Summary Report, so no longer a surprise for the market.
EU production increased by 2.7 million tonnes to 134.8 million tonnes (durum and common wheat), mainly due to upwardly revised harvest volumes from Poland and Germany. The Russian wheat star left the USDA unchanged from the previous month at 91 million tons, contrary to most global estimates of up to 100 million tons. The harvest for the Ukraine also remained unchanged at 20.5 million tons.
Global consumption will be reduced by 0.9 million tons to 790.2 million tons. World trade is cut by 0.6 million tons to 208.3 million. Behind this are reduced exports from the United States and Argentina, while EU exports have been revised up to 35 million tonnes from 33.5 million tonnes.
The USDA left Russia’s exports unchanged at 42 million tons and Ukraine’s exports at 11 million tons. Forecast ending stocks for 2022/23 are reduced by 1.0 million tonnes to 267.5 million primarily due to a reduction for the United States.