what the polls say three months before the June 9 election

POLLS – That’s it, this time there is no longer room for doubt. The political parties are all looking towards June 9. In three months to the day, the French will be invited to vote in the European elections, a vote which will have a test value two years after the re-election of Emmanuel Macron and three years before the presidential election.

A week after the victorious National Rally in 2019, it is the majority around the head of the list Valérie Hayer and Prime Minister Gabriel Attal who launch their campaign this Saturday. 92 days to convince voters to trust them and to send as many MEPs as possible to the European Parliament.

These 81 parliamentarians will be members of the lists which will have gathered at least 5% of the votes on June 9. A horizon that a dozen can hope to reach given the voting intentions that HuffPost aggregates each month in its survey compiler.

As we regularly repeat, this tool is not intended to predict the outcome of the election but to provide a snapshot of opinion at a moment and to highlight trends. In this case it establishes a balance of power before the campaign really begins and televised debates or meetings move (or not) the lines.

Two favorites, but one (much) more than the other

In 2019, the gap between the RN and LREM was 200,000 votes, or less than one point; the two parties had even obtained the same number of elected officials (23). Five years later, a gulf has opened up between the two parties that dominate the polls. In the lead since we compiled the polls, the Lepenist party has widened a clear lead which stands at more than 10 points at the beginning of March (29.1 against 18.6%). Barely appointed by Emmanuel Macron, Valérie Hayer has an immense challenge before her: to make herself known to the French in order to reverse the dynamics and come back to Jordan Bardella who has been campaigning for several months.

A match left for third place

In the absence of unity, victory seems inaccessible to the left, which is mainly looking at the 10% mark. In 2019, it was Yannick Jadot’s EELV list which overtook it, ranking third (13.5%); a goal set by Marie Toussaint who was elected to lead the environmentalist list. But three months before the election, voting intentions are clearly down since it reached 8.1% in our compiler. She is especially ahead in this three-way match by Raphaël Glucksmann who obtains 9.8%, more than five years ago (6.2%). Also a candidate during the last election, Manon Aubry returned for France Insoumise. Problem for the one who has just presented her list, it stagnates at a slightly higher level (7.4% against 6.3%).

A merciless duel on the right and its extreme

Compared to 2019, a new list has burst into the landscape: that led by Marion Maréchal for Eric Zemmour’s Reconquest party. If this competition does not seem to weaken the National Rally, this 6.5% is a thorn in the side of the Republicans; three months from the ballot, François-Xavier Bellamy collects 7.7% of voting intentions, less than during the last election (8.5%). The two camps vying for a conservative electorate are in a tight spot and neither is safe from a nasty surprise on June 9, namely falling below the 5% mark.

For all the other lists not cited until now (that of the PCF led by Léon Deffontaines, that of Debout la France by Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, that of the Rural Alliance led by Jean Lassalle, those of Lutte Ouvrière by Nathalie Arthaud, of the Animalist Party, the NPA or the Radical Party), it would on the contrary be a nice surprise to approach this fateful threshold.

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