New cars with internal combustion engines will probably no longer be able to be registered in Europe from 2035 onwards – not even if the petrol or diesel engines are operated with synthetic fuel. So-called e-fuels are based on green electricity, with which hydrogen is generated and carbon, for example, is separated from the air. The fuel produced from this is CO2-neutral in the overall balance, but not at the exhaust.
It is a farewell in installments: by 2030, car manufacturers must reduce the CO2 emissions of their vehicle fleets by 55 percent compared to 2021, five years later, according to the EU Parliament, the reduction should be 100 percent.
Cars that have already been registered will not be directly affected by the combustion engine ban in 2035. There will probably then be more than 30 million vehicles with conventional drives in Germany. However, driving a car with these youngtimers does not get any cheaper. “Residual values will then also go down with the petrol engine – similar to the diesel in recent years,” predicts market expert Ferdinand Dudenhöffer. Conversely, falling used car prices mean rising leasing rates for new vehicles. At the same time, CO2 taxes and thus fuel prices will increase continuously.
“The cost of spare parts will also increase during the phasing out phase of the combustion engine,” says Dudenhöffer. Because the wearing parts are only built in smaller volumes, the prices are rising. “It should look similar with chips for engine management or transmissions. It will be a bit like vintage cars. The prices for spare parts will run away from customers,” says Dudenhöffer. Combustion models are therefore constantly being pushed out of the market because of the price – or are expensively maintained as collector’s vehicles.
Exactly the opposite could develop the costs for electric cars. Ferdinand Dudenhöffer expects that new cars of this type will definitely be cheaper than equivalent petrol engines from 2030 onwards. Numerous new cell factories and new battery technologies should bring further cost reductions after 2025. By then at the latest – taking maintenance costs into account – electric cars will be significantly cheaper than petrol ones.
Combustion engines are also under pressure from the upcoming EU-7 emissions standard: Because emissions during cold starts are to be further reduced, all new gasoline and diesel engines will probably need a heated catalytic converter from 2025. This requires a 48-volt electrical system with a powerful extra battery, which, according to Renault boss Luca de Meo, will cost new car customers at least an additional 1000 euros.
The big question is whether hydrogen passenger cars will be more than a market niche in the future given the advances in battery-only vehicles. The costs of sustainable hydrogen production are high and the fuel cells in the vehicle are nowhere near as efficient as the combination of battery and electric motor.