NATO is 75 years old and is still largely dependent on the USA. But Washington is likely to withdraw in the future. What role does the Bundeswehr play in the alliance – and can it fill the gap?
The airspace over NATO’s eastern border looks like a jumble of dozens of yellow, red and white dots on Chris’ computer monitor. The 49-year-old German NATO soldier sits on board an AWACS reconnaissance aircraft at an altitude of ten kilometers. He wears an olive green uniform, cap and glasses. “Our presence is intended to show the Russians: We are paying attention,” says Chris.
The plane has been circling over Poland for several hours, close to the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad. The flashing dots indicate other aircraft: civil aircraft, military aircraft – including Russian ones. “We see everything that flies,” says Chris. The soldiers don’t give their last names on the plane.
The monitors in the AWACS show all flight movements in the area.
More NATOReconnaissance flights
Together with 19 other NATO soldiers from several nations, Chris monitors the airspace using radar – always on the lookout for possible Russian aircraft that may be encroaching on NATO airspace. Every now and then, Russian fighter jets appear over international waters in the Baltic Sea without identifying themselves, Chris reports. “At the moment everyone is following the rules,” he says, looking at the dots on the monitor.
Since the beginning of the war against Ukraine, NATO has been flying more frequent and longer such reconnaissance missions. Overall, Chris observes that there have been more “military exercises” on the monitors in the Baltics since 2022 – both on the Russian and NATO sides. Otherwise, no major change can be noticed.
The data collected from the flight flows almost in real time to NATO command posts and to all NATO member countries. A Canadian soldier sits next to Chris. Americans, Spaniards, Portuguese and Dutch are also on board. They all belong to the team at the NATO Airbase in Geilenkirchen in North Rhine-Westphalia – an international hub for aerial reconnaissance in Europe. “The flights show that we stand together,” said Chris.
Germany plays a key role in reconnaissance and anti-aircraft defense.
NATO contributions from the Bundeswehr
But the Bundeswehr is not only supporting the military alliance in Geilenkirchen. German Eurofighters are helping to protect the airspace in the Baltics. On the ground, Germany leads one of four so-called “battle groups” on NATO’s eastern flank. For this purpose, it also provides German combat troops in Lithuania. So far, different units have rotated in this position.
However, the Bundeswehr is now planning the next step: the permanent relocation of an entire German brigade with 4,800 soldiers to Lithuania. The force should be operational there by 2027.
For Barbara Kunz from the peace research institute SIPRI, this is a substantial contribution that Germany is currently making to the defense of the NATO alliance. Depending on the scenario you’re preparing for, “that’s not enough,” says Kunz. In addition, the German Bundeswehr Association had recently warned that not a single army brigade was currently ready for deployment.
Weakened anti-aircraft defenses and Lack of information
Christian Mölling from the German Society for Foreign Policy is also critical of Germany’s capabilities in NATO. “There is no area in which Germany is particularly efficient,” said Mölling. Traditionally, Germany has maintained capacities in the important area of air defense. However, these have been thinned out by arms deliveries to Ukraine.
In addition to nuclear deterrence, Germany relies primarily on the USA “for reconnaissance and everything that has to do with sensors,” says Mölling. Germany is actually trying to play a key role in this area. It would not be possible to compensate for the loss of the USA at the moment.
Overall, not only Germany, but all European NATO states are dependent on the USA, said Mölling. “There are no capability gaps in Europe, we are below zero everywhere,” sums up the security expert. Above all, he calls for capacity to be built up in areas such as reconnaissance, long-range weapons and air transport: “The Americans can master this in a way that the Europeans cannot.”
Fewer US resources in Europe
Both security experts, Kunz and Mölling, assume that the USA will increasingly withdraw resources from Europe in the future – both under a Biden administration and under a possible President Donald Trump. “Life insurance from Washington probably won’t continue like this,” says Kunz.
An American withdrawal would be a massive problem for the European NATO countries. The USA shoulders the vast majority of absolute NATO expenditure. According to information from Brussels, the US spent an estimated $700 billion on defense in 2023. For comparison: the remaining 31 NATO partners combined spent $370 billion.
Defense spending: Germany only in midfield
In order to remain able to act and defend themselves, the NATO states agreed years ago to spend two percent of their respective gross domestic product on defense. However, the NATO Secretary General’s annual report for 2023 shows that only eleven states have met this requirement. Relatively speaking, Poland spent the largest share (3.92 percent), followed by the USA (3.24 percent) and Greece (3.02 percent).
Since Germany has invested little in the last 30 years, it is now primarily the case that “other states are supporting Germany,” says Mölling. This year, Germany is expected to reach the two percent target for the first time. According to the NATO report, in 2023 it only achieved 1.66 percent of its own GDP performance – 14th place in NATO’s internal ranking.
In view of the complex NATO planning processes, according to SIPRI researcher Kunz, it is not about “working through shopping lists”, but rather simply making militarily necessary capabilities available. NATO would not be served “if all states bought tanks for two percent of their GDP, but command structures were not adjusted,” said Kunz. There’s too little of everything.
After all: In February, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg announced that 18 alliance members would probably reach the two percent target this year. In order to make Europe “storm-proof” in the long term, even higher expenditure is necessary, says security expert Mölling.