What scenarios are being studied to curb the epidemic?



Emmanuel Macron and Olivier Véran, March 29, 2021 in Créteil. – AFP

  • Emmanuel Macron will speak this Wednesday at 8 p.m., announced the Elysee. He must announce new measures to curb the epidemic.
  • In France, the coronavirus epidemic is still raging, and the situation is particularly tense in the hospital, where the number of patients in “critical care” has exceeded the threshold of the second wave.
  • Among the hypotheses considered by the executive is the closure of schools, which are “major places of contamination”, according to Professor Antoine Flahault.

It has become the sign of large-scale announcements. Emmanuel Macron is due to speak this Wednesday at 8 p.m. during a speech to state his choices in the face of the continued progression of the Covid-19 epidemic in France. Once again, the French are suspended from arbitration by the Head of State.

Faced with criticism of his anti-Covid strategy with more than 5,000 patients “in critical care”, more than during the second wave, the Head of State must make decisions at the end of the Defense Council which is being held in the morning. Will he bet on vaccination, close schools or extend the braking measures to other departments? Overview of the scenarios envisaged.

Closure of schools and extended holidays

One of the means of reducing epidemic pressure is, according to teachers, parents and local elected officials, to close schools in order to limit contamination. A solution that the Head of State and his Minister of Education Jean-Michel Blanquer only want to take as a last resort.

The mayor of Paris Anne Hidalgo on Wednesday asked for the closure of schools in the capital, in view of the “very serious” health situation and the “very great disorganization” in the establishments. She indicated on BFMTV and RMC that “about 20,000 students” were today “not in class either because they are sick or because the classes are closed”, these being 850. Since Monday, a single case of Covid-19 justifies the closure of a class in the regions most affected by the epidemic. Schools are “major places of contamination,” said Professor Antoine Flahaut, director of the Institute for Global Health at the University of Geneva, who advocates their closure.

To this measure would be added the proposal made by the ex-LR president of the Ile-de-France region, Valérie Pécresse, to bring forward the spring holidays planned from April 17, to close schools for a month. This proposal is closely watched at the Elysee Palace and “the reflection is underway”, according to an adviser.

Maintaining semi-containment

According to this scenario, the braking measures put in place a little less than two weeks ago in 16, then 19 departments in France are maintained. But the executive is trying to act on hospital pressure by bringing in resuscitators from areas less affected by the circulation of the virus, explains Franceinfo. Another proposed proposal: to make patient transfers within the territory compulsory, by supporting family travel (partial unemployment, accommodation and transport), who would not have a say.

Hard confinement

The hypothesis of a “hard” confinement, like that of last March, is not completely ruled out. Schools would thus be closed and exit certificates would be required during the day. Asked about the strong measures he recommends, Professor Antoine Flahault underlines: “We are closing schools and confining the whole country in a fairly strict way. “” It would work again, he projected, it would be the most effective measure to go as quickly as possible towards the recession. But faced with a population increasingly reluctant to restrictive measures, the government, which takes into account the acceptability of citizens, could set aside this scenario.

To decide, Emmanuel Macron will take into account the latest epidemic data, without being able to really assess the effect of the hybrid confinement put in place in 19 departments. Emmanuel Macron’s last speech dates from his wishes to the French, on December 31. The previous one was held on November 27: he then announced the establishment of a second confinement.



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