What if there was no majority in some regions?

Regional elections may not end on the evening of the second round, June 27. The week which will follow, until the election of the presidents and presidents of the regional councils, sometimes called “3rd round”, could be sporting in certain prefectures. In question, the possible absence of an absolute majority for the winning list on the evening of June 27, mentioned in at least four regions in polls published this week.

Since 2004, however, everything has been done to avoid surprises in the “3rd round”. Current voting system provides that the list which came first in the second round obtains a bonus of 25% of the seats in the regional council, the remaining seats are distributed proportionally among all the lists having obtained more than 5%. As a result, the top list is almost certain to have more than 50% of the regional council seats, even if it did not have more than 50% of the votes. Almost certain, because if the winner obtains less than 33% of the votes, then the absolute majority is missing for a few seats (see box).

A bursting of the political offer

This hypothesis seems very real: in Pays-de-la-Loire, in the Center, in Bourgogne-Franche-Comté or in the Grand-Est, surveys indicate that the winning list may not obtain these famous 33%. This new situation is linked to “the bursting of the political offer and the appearance of an autonomous center, measured at relatively low levels in the 1st round but despite everything in a position to be maintained in most regions”, indicates Mathieu Gallard, director of studies at Ipsos interviewed by 20 minutes.

But in this case what would happen? First of all, you should know that regional councils without an absolute majority are not entirely new. From 1986 to 1998, regional elections were held in a single round with full proportional representation. And most of the time, there was no absolute majority. If such a case should happen again in 2021, “we would return to the bottom of the negotiations for the constitution of majorities that we had already known at that time”, thinks Pascal Perrineau, professor at Science Po, questioned by 20 minutes.

Without a majority, three ways of doing things

Three options are on the table in this scenario. The first is that of the coalition. “Parties could discuss a certain time to ally”, describes Mathieu Gallard. The second is that of the individual debauchery of the top list among the losers: “After all it is likely that the winning list lacks the absolute majority only a few seats,” said the pollster from Ipsos. Finally, the third would consist for the top list to govern without a lasting majority but on a case-by-case basis, subject by subject, with the other groups. “It is reminiscent of what Michel Rocard did when he was Prime Minister without an absolute majority from 1988: suddenly he was in the majority with the Communists, a coup with the center,” recalls Mathieu Gallard.

One case seems more delicate than the others: if the National Rally list wins in the second round, but fails with two or three seats of the absolute majority in the regional council. Could not such a scenario accelerate the attempts to reconcile with the right of The Republicans? “The temptation could be at work, but one can think that the national apparatuses would intervene. This type of alliance would break the dynamics of the right which will seek a presidential candidate from the start, ”believes Pascal Perrineau.

The 1998 precedent

The temptation, and even more than the temptation, already existed: in 1998, against the instructions of the national leaders of the right and even of Jacques Chirac, then president, it is thanks to the elected representatives of the National Front that eight right-wing candidates became regional presidents, sometimes before resigning. This is what prompted the modification of the voting system. Even more: in 1986, Jean-Claude Gaudin, not yet mayor of Marseille at the time, was elected president of the Provence-Alpes-Côte-d’Azur region thanks to the vote of the FN… which even obtained several vice-presidencies in the regional executive. “But this time it would be for the right to ally with an RN in the lead. It is not the same thing ”, tempers Pascal Perrineau.

That said, pre-first round assumption does not make the election. The second-round polls conducted today, before the first, are based on possible scenarios, but not certain. “Everything remains very vague: we do not yet know exactly who will be able to hold on, who will be able to merge their lists. We are now announcing four lists in the second round in some regions but who knows if there will not be only three? », Warns the political scientist. The prospect of RN victories could also push certain lists to withdrawal, in particular certain LREM lists on which “the pressure will be very strong” thinks Mathieu Gallard.

More than a week before the first round, some candidates are clearly aware of the risk: on the evening of publication of an Ipsos survey in the Grand-Est region which gives a victory for the RN list in the second round but with only 32% of the vote, the outgoing president LR, Jean Rottner, credited with 29% in this hypothesis, did not rule out an alliance with the LREM list, surveyed she at 19%. The negotiations, here or elsewhere, are probably just beginning: Jean Rottner had said the exact opposite a week earlier.