West Africa suffered a succession of coups d’etat. In the past two years, four countries in the region have fallen into the hands of the army. After Burkina Faso, Guinea and Mali, it is Niger’s turn to see its democratic power overthrown. Worried by this terrible game of dominoes, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) raised its voice and threatened the putschists with military intervention on Sunday July 30. The authority then enjoined the military to restore the overthrown president, Mohamed Bazoum, under penalty of the use of “force”.
“ECOWAS had never made such a threat against people who had seized power by force,” underlines Christian Bouquet, associate researcher at the Les Afriques dans le monde (LAM) laboratory at Sciences po Bordeaux. Unpublished, this ultimatum agitated observers and international media. However, he expired in the night from Sunday to Monday without the sound of weapons being heard. “It’s a first, it’s true. But this is not the first time that ECOWAS has made statements that it does not hold, ”recalls Thierry Vircoulon. “Those who brandished this threat speak faster than they think,” retorts the coordinator of the Observatory on Central and Southern Africa at Ifri.
Will the mountain give birth to a mouse?
To intervene militarily, the West African organization must indeed rely on its member countries. The body hoped in particular that Nigeria, which shares nearly 1,500 kilometers of border with Niger, would be the spearhead of this intervention. “Nigeria is geographically very well placed and has a fairly powerful army, but its Senate has come out against intervention,” explains Christian Bouquet. Deprived of this tactical heavyweight, ECOWAS does not really seem able to carry out its threats.
In addition, other countries have opposed an intervention, such as Chad and Algeria – which is admittedly not part of the organization but shares a border with Niger and is worried about the consequences on its security. For their part, Mali and Burkina Faso, respectively overthrown by military groups in 2021 and 2022, have warned that they will consider this intervention as a “declaration of war against them”. “These big statements are very likely to give birth to nothing,” summarizes Thierry Vircoulon.
Discussions that may not “lead to much”
Caught up by reality, ECOWAS “probably prefers to favor the path of dialogue”, notes Christian Bouquet. Its leaders will meet this Thursday in Abuja, Nigeria, for an “extraordinary summit” on the situation. But the delegation sent to Niamey failed to meet the putschists last Thursday. “ECOWAS, like the head of the African Union, is persona non grata in Niamey today. It is to be hoped that exchanges and negotiations take place behind the scenes,” notes the researcher associated with the Les Afriques dans le monde laboratory. “There can always be unofficial discussions, abounds Thierry Vircoulon. But the dialogues usually don’t lead to much. This is what we saw during the three previous putschs [au Burkina Faso, en Guinée et au Mali]. »
Inside the country, few dissenting voices are heard. “We see demonstrations in support of the putsch in Niamey, but it is not representative of the general population of Niger. It is a small part of the urban people who give power to the army”, deciphers Christian Bouquet. In 2021, during the second round of the presidential election, the elected president obtained much better scores in the east of the country. But while a silent majority is likely to support Mohamed Bazoum, the power of weapons coupled with geographic distance may well nullify that support. Especially since “if he was elected, Bazoum did not know how to build real popularity afterwards”, analyzes Thierry Vircoulon. It is therefore difficult, at this stage, to imagine a civil war in Niger.
The power of sanctions
There remains a tool that has been particularly brandished on the international scene in recent times: sanctions. In parallel with its ultimatum, ECOWAS has decided to impose drastic sanctions on Niger. The authority decided to close all the roads with the country. However, “Niger is a landlocked country that depends a lot on the coastal strip”, recalls Christian Bouquet, who adds that “Nigeria has decided to cut the power it supplies to Niger when the country is 70% dependent on it. . It is a measure that paralyzes the administrations and the economy and does not really target the people because there is very little electrification in Niger. »
All service transactions are suspended and “grants that paid civil servants are frozen. So the situation cannot last very long,” notes the researcher. The soldiers who took power do not have access to state money, stored in the Central Bank of West African States. Difficult under these conditions to pay the civil servants, and in particular the soldiers. “In Burkina and Mali, there were putschs within the putsch. It is possible that they also live from it, ”underlines Thierry Vircoulon. A gloomy prospect for the stability of Niger which, after two abortive coups in 2021 and 2022, could see a string of generals succeed one another. Because a possible fall of General Abdourahamane Tiani will not necessarily be synonymous with a return to democracy.