Are we going to see a fourth wave of the coronavirus epidemic arrive at the end of July, as the Minister of Health, Olivier Véran says? If nothing is certain yet, the health authorities are scrutinizing epidemic indicators under a magnifying glass.
In recent days, several signals have alerted: the incidence rate in Paris has risen above the alert threshold, contaminations are on the rise and the Delta variant is on the increase. 20 minutes takes stock of the indicators to monitor.
Incidence rate on the rise
The first indicator closely scrutinized by the authorities is the incidence rate, that is to say the number of cases of contamination per 100,000 inhabitants. While it had significantly decreased since mid-June, the incidence rate seems to be rising all over the country, and particularly in Paris, the only department to go above the alert threshold (50).
The incidence rate in the capital is now 54 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, according to data from Public Health France. “These figures should alert us. We can clearly see that the incidence rate is rising locally in the departments which are ahead of the spread of the Delta variant ”, warns Pascal Crépey, epidemiologist at the Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Santé Publique. (EHESP).
If the national incidence rate remains well below the alert threshold, with 24.1 cases per 100,000 inhabitants the week of June 27 to July 3, it was 18.7 the previous week, according to the latest data. “In recent days, the incidence rate at the national level seems not to decrease any more”, had warned the spokesperson Gabriel Attal at the exit of the Council of Ministers, last Wednesday. Conversely, in the Landes, where the restriction measures were extended until July 6, the incidence rate fell from 57.3, the week of June 24 to June 30, to 49.8 the week of June 27 to July 3, below the alert threshold.
Contamination figures on the rise
The number of patients in intensive care continues to decline, but contaminations, the second criterion monitored by the Ministry of Health, are on the rise again, according to figures from Public Health France (SpF) published on Monday. Health authorities recorded 3,585 new cases in 24 hours, the highest daily figure since June 12. By way of comparison, the week of June 21 to 27, about 1,800 cases of contamination, on average, were recorded each day.
Side hospitalization, the health agency counts 1,032 of these serious cases in the hospital, against 1,077 the day before and more than 2,500 a month earlier. A total of 7,637 people are hospitalized due to Covid-19, a number that has been declining for two months. In 24 hours, 149 Covid patients entered hospital and 30 were admitted to critical care.
If the figures are down, Pascal Crépey nevertheless calls for vigilance: “When the incidence rate rises, we can expect an increase in hospitalizations a few weeks later, it is a later indicator, but its signal is stronger. “But for the epidemiologist, the health situation” will depend on the behavior of the French, the progress of vaccination and the effectiveness of tracing measures “, explains the epidemiologist, who adds:” We can be optimistic and hope keep a stable incidence level this summer. But unfortunately, we can see in our neighbors where the incidence rate goes up as the hospitalizations followed. “
The Delta variant more and more present
Among the contaminations, the authorities are more particularly keeping an eye on the variants, and in particular the Delta variant. Also called the L452R mutation, this more contagious and more virulent variant has worried the authorities for several weeks. At the end of June, the Minister of Health, Olivier Véran, had indicated that this variant represented only 20% of cases of contamination. According to the latest data from Public Health France, the L452R mutation was present in 41.9% of tests performed during the week of June 27 to July 3.
And this is one of the indicators that worries health authorities the most. “The virus no longer decreases, it increases again, because of the Delta variant which is very contagious. The English example shows that a wave is possible from the end of July. We can limit it and limit the health impact: barrier gestures, vaccine, test / alert / protect, ”said Olivier Véran, this Sunday, in a message posted on his Twitter account. “The Delta variant is transmitted 60% more easily. It means it’s going to be more difficult to control. What allowed us to keep the epidemic under control until now may not be enough, ”warns Pascal Crépey, who calls for vaccination as soon as possible.