We are almost there ! Emmanuel Macron must formalize his candidacy for a second term this Thursday in a “Letter to the French” which will appear the next day in the regional daily press. The challenge is immense: apart from the period of cohabitation, no president elected by direct universal suffrage has succeeded in being re-elected. At 40 months days of the first round of the presidential election, 20 minutes tried to review the strengths and weaknesses of the president-candidate on the starting line. What “capital” will Emmanuel Macron be able to grow or, on the contrary, will he risk losing in the campaign? Let’s go !
Where is it in the polls?
In opinion polls, Emmanuel Macron benefits from the effect of “rallying around the flag” which benefits the leaders in place in times of crisis, in this case since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine. A situation that the president had, in part, experienced at the time of the health crisis. Thus, the outgoing sometimes navigates around 28% of voting intentions in the first round. But it would be dishonest to consider that the incumbent only draws its strength from the international situation. Emmanuel Macron has been leading opinion polls very consistently for months, around 25% of voting intentions.
Its popularity is also good, relative to its predecessors anyway – around 40%, according to Ipsos. “But the gap has narrowed with Nicolas Sarkozy, for example, who was 36% of good opinions in January 2012,” notes Mathieu Gallard, research director at Ipsos. Above all, Emmanuel Macron is always seen as having leadership qualities and as embodying the presidential function well. Maud Bregeon, spokesperson for LREM, refuses the label of “favorite” but finds these polls very consistent with what she feels on the ground. “I hear the satisfaction of a large part of our fellow citizens on the balance sheet on crisis management. They recognize the action and the courage of the president, ”said the elected Ile-de-France.
Researcher at CNRS and Cevipof, Bruno Cautrès nevertheless sees some weak points in Emmanuel Macron. “Certainly, he is more popular than Sarkozy but does not reach heights either. And above all, there is a big gap with voting intentions. That means a lot of people, even though they think he did the job, don’t want to vote for him. The image of the outgoing president is, according to our observers, very split, especially since the crisis of “yellow vests”. From this crisis remains a “feeling of remoteness from the concerns of the French, a difficulty in understanding them”, remarks Mathieu Gallard.
Who votes for Macron today?
In 2017, Emmanuel Macron’s electorate was split between right and left, “but leaned slightly to the left”, recalls Mathieu Gallard. From now on, he “leans slightly to the right”. To date, the Macronist electorate has therefore not changed that much, even if the French now perceive it more on the rightwhen they saw him at the center five years ago, according to Ifop.
According to Ipsos, Emmanuel Macron is also better placed among those over 60, retirees and executives. Elderly, integrated into society: Emmanuel Macron is popular with people whose voting rate is much better than others. A big plus. “LREM supporters say they are sure to vote at 77%, it’s more than everyone else”, notes Matthieu Galard. And 68% of people who say they want to vote for Macron today say they won’t change their minds. “That doesn’t mean they won’t do it, but it shows the strength of his electorate,” analyzes the director of study. Moreover, the outgoing president found, before the start of the war in Ukraine, two-thirds of those who voted for him five years ago. There too, it is more than the other contenders and contenders for the Elysée.
The dispersion of the opposition, a blessing?
The division within the extreme right and the left is in particular what has allowed Emmanuel Macron to clearly dominate the debates for months without having himself been at a very high level in the polls. “But it’s an advantage and a disadvantage”, thinks Bruno Cautrès. Firstly because the question arises of how to build a majority in the second round. Then because in the outgoing position, he will find himself under fire from all his opponents with the same speaking time as each of them. In 2012, Nicolas Sarkozy, then president campaigning for his re-election, summarized the situation after the first round: “For five weeks, it was nine against one. »
The same pattern could repeat itself ten years later. However, this will not necessarily constitute a disadvantage, in the sense that none of his opponents is seen as capable of doing better than him. “It is his main asset in my eyes, slips Mathieu Gallard. He is perceived as more credible on most of the major issues of the moment: purchasing power, social protection, economy… He is outstripped only when one of his opponents has a big advantage, like Jadot on ecology or Le Pen and Zemmour on immigration. And in times of international crisis, the outgoing president necessarily has a considerable competitive advantage over his opponents.
Can the war in Ukraine be a game-changer?
The Russian invasion of Ukraine since February 24 crushes everything – including the presidential campaign. And puts the President of the Republic even more at the center of attention. “It’s true that at first sight this situation is favorable to him”, recognizes Bruno Cautrès. Not only the international is a subject that highlights the outgoing, but it is also a theme “where the French recognize its credibility”: namely a powerful EU and the construction of a Europe of defence… Bonus : France is presiding over the Council of Ministers of the European Union for six months and, as such, Emmanuel Macron is due to receive a major summit of the 27 in Versailles on the question of Europe’s energy sovereignty, in mid-March. Just one month from the first round.
But beware, Mathieu Gallard recalls that, traditionally, international subjects are not a priority during the presidential election. “The president should not send a message to the French that a second term would be totally devoted to Europe. ” Message received in the majority, assures Olivier Becht, president of the group Agir ensemble at the National Assembly: ” The electoral campaign must take place. It would be tragic not to have a debate on all the subjects. »
Finally, even if today the situation seems very favorable to Emmanuel Macron, there is still a good month and a half of campaign. And the latest events have proven that unexpected reversals in the international situation could happen in a very short time. And reshuffle the cards again.
“The president of crises”, a tenacious label?
If Nicolas Sarkozy was the president of the financial crisis, François Hollande of the terrorist crisis, Emmanuel Macron will have been the president of three crises: that of the “yellow vests”, the health crisis and the international crisis represented by the return of a high intensity war between two states in Europe. What to have the opportunity to put on the costume of the “father of the nation” that Emmanuel Macron seems to like. An asset against opponents who are only “candidates”. The risk is that the balance sheet of the mandate is only perceived by the French and the French as that of the crises.
“Everything has been a little flattened by the health crisis. Few things ‘before’ stand out in the assessment that the French make of Emmanuel Macron’s mandate”, illustrates Mathieu Gallard. Not a problem, according to Maud Bregeon: “Our fellow citizens will remember that, thanks to our protection policy, traders have not gone out of business because of the pandemic and that 13 million employees have been partial unemployment thanks to government decisions”, in reference to “whatever the cost”. The question is whether, to pass the towel on the crises, the electorate will want to get rid of the president who accompanied them at that time. The walkers have in mind the – very flattering – previous Churchill in the United Kingdom: winner of the Second World War on May 8, 1945 and largely defeated at the polls less than two months later.