An infographic relating to the case fatality and survival rates of Covid-19 is actively circulating on social networks. Attributed to
Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Americans, the figures on this poor-quality image – which appears to be a photograph of a television or computer screen – yet underestimate the dangerousness of the virus.
COVID-19 SURVIVAL RATES (per CDC): pic.twitter.com/uXHrjCTgtv
– Ava Armstrong, Author (@MsAvaArmstrong) June 17, 2021
According to this snapshot, the survival and case fatality rates estimated by the CDC after a Covid-19 infection in the United States would be respectively 99.997% and 0.00003% for people aged 0 to 19 years; from 99.58% to 0.0002% between 20 and 49 years old; 99.5% and 0.005% between 50 and 69 years old and 94.6% and 0.054% for people over 70 years old.
However, these figures, in addition to being false, have never been published by the CDC.
FAKE OFF
Jasmine reed, one of the spokespersons for the CDC, confirmed to 20 minutes that these figures had never been published by the health authority in any form whatsoever. In addition, she recalled that the survival rate of a disease was not calculated by establishing “the proportion of people with Covid-19 not to have died”, but by “following a group of individuals over the course of time to see how many die from the disease, while taking into account their life expectancy ”. Data relating to coronavirus cases and deaths around the world are all available on the tool ”
Covid-19 Data Tracker From the CDC, she also said.
The visual aspect of the computer graphics already made it possible to doubt its veracity. If the logo and the banner, in the header, are correct and seem authentic, the blur, the color gradients, and the slight curvature of the text lines suggest a montage.
The case-fatality rate of the virus, i.e. the proportion of people who died among infected individuals, is also not expressed as a percentage on the site of the American health authority, but in the number of deaths per million people infected. According to the latest CDC estimates, the case fatality rate for Americans between the ages of 0 and 17 is 20 per million, or 0.002%. The older the age, the greater the risk of dying from the virus. Beyond 65 years, the rate thus reaches 90,000 deaths per million patients, or 9%. Very far, therefore, from the 0.054% announced for people over 70 years old in the misleading infographic disseminated on the networks.
An indicator to be taken with a grain of salt
If the case fatality rate of the virus remains a relevant indicator when it is calculated for the same country and by age group, however, relating it to the world population would not really make sense. It should be remembered that these results can vary significantly from one country to another. Imperial College London, which had compiled no less than 175 global studies on Covid-19In October 2020, fixed the average case fatality rate at 1.75% in high-income countries such as France or the United States, while it was only 0.25% in low income. The youth of the populations in some of these countries, such as in Africa for example, could explain such a difference.