Status: 08/31/2021 1:11 p.m.
The Taliban defeated a superpower and humiliated the West. Terror experts warn of a dangerous boost in motivation for Islamists worldwide. The security authorities are also alerted in this country.
From the Federal Ministry of the Interior it is said: The security authorities continuously exchanged information on the development of the situation, including in the “Joint Counter-Terrorism Center” (GTAZ). “The aim is to identify and counteract any risk aspects at an early stage,” a spokesman for the ministry told the ARD capital studio. However, so far there are no indications or knowledge about the effects on the security and risk situation in Germany.
Exploitation of refugee routes
But constitutional protectors, such as Stephan Kramer from Thuringia, warn: “With regard to the internal security situation in Germany and Europe, we must not allow us not to know which people are currently entering Germany.” This applies to both evacuation measures and refugee flows via third countries currently and in the coming weeks and months, according to the Thuringian President of the Office for the Protection of the Constitution.
“If, according to current estimates, around 500 people of the around 5,000 evacuees have come to Germany whose personal details are not known and in some cases also their current whereabouts, then that is anything but reassuring.” It is true that the rescue is humanitarian, but the security interests of the Federal Republic are just as important and must be seriously pursued.
“We have to assume that the jihadists will of course try again to use the stream of refugees to smuggle potential terrorists into the country,” warns Kramer. He’s not interested in paranoia or a general suspicion of xenophobia, he says, but rather a precautionary measure and about protecting the population and the refugees.
Motivation boost for Islamists
Carlo Masala, Professor of International Politics at the Bundeswehr University in Munich, assumes that the Taliban triumph has already triggered a “boost in motivation” for Islamists around the world. After all, an Islamist movement defeated the United States and its Western allies in a 20-year war. This signal should not be underestimated. It is even bigger than the establishment of the caliphate by the so-called Islamic State in 2014, Masala said.
For the first time since the defeat of the Soviet Union in Afghanistan in 1989, Islamists wrested an entire country from a superpower, added constitutional protector Kramer. This is an “inspiration and motivation that should not be underestimated” for other Islamists to continue their struggle, said Kramer.
Worry about support for jihadists
Terrorist organizations around the world praised the Taliban’s success. Even more. Some called for imitation, reports Yan St-Pierre, counter-terrorism advisor. These included allies of Al Qaeda, extremist chat groups or, in some cases, even right-wing extremist groups. At the moment it is still too early to be able to assess what concrete consequences this could have. For example, more financial support or even in the planning of operations is conceivable.
Earlier examples had shown “how such successes of extremist organizations fostered support and influx and thus additional resources were made available for extremist groups”. St-Pierre estimates that the Islamist scene in Germany will also try to benefit from this situation. In the event of success, the threat potential could also increase with us.
Lonely wolves
This is not about attacks like September 11, 2001, but rather attacks with so-called “lone wolves” in the home countries of the West, added constitutional protector Kramer. A new addition is the fact that many Afghans feel that the West has left them in the lurch. So, of all people, those who believed in the West and open societies and whom the West is now leaving behind at the mercy of the Islamists.
“A popular argument of the Islamists is to convince Muslims that they will never be respected and recognized in the West and that they have to reflect on their own – religious – values.” For many Afghans, this prejudice should unfortunately now be confirmed.
Normally, victories like the Taliban would have a unifying effect among the various Islamist groups, explains political scientist Masala. However, in Afghanistan in particular, there were particular rivalries between the Taliban, Al Qaeda and IS. What effects this will have on the international security situation cannot yet be definitively assessed.
So far there has been no uniform front
Kramer lists which groups celebrated the success of the Taliban:
Among the first to congratulate the Taliban after the triumph were Hamas and the sub-groups of al Qaeda: Al Shabab (Somalia) and Hayat Tahir al-Shaun (Syria). Jihadists in Pakistan, Middle Eastern countries, Africa, India, Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines also celebrated the Taliban’s victory.
The reason is common origins and the common belief of the Salafist jihadists. However, this did not mean, he also confirms, that there was a unified front. At least not yet.
Recruiting terrorists
“The fact that the Taliban are working closely with the United States to fight IS will certainly cost them sympathy,” estimates the political scientist Masala. Or in the words of constitutional protector Kramer: “Afghan ISIS considers the Taliban to be American lackeys”. ISIS supporters would concentrate on defaming the Taliban as traitors to their faith, adviser St-Pierre also expects.
“However, we have learned in recent years that rivalry between organizations plays only a limited role in recruitment,” explains St-Pierre. Rather, local dynamics, in which extremist supporters and networks are active, are decisive. That also applies to Germany.
Instagram jihadism
What helps the Islamist groups to develop dynamics: Propaganda in social media. Unlike in the past, the jihadists are no longer dependent on ideologies being classified by traditional media. They have long been able to spread their propaganda in their words on Instagram – worldwide, for a gigantic audience. The extremists also recruited new followers, explains St-Pierre:
Their support networks are well versed in serving the social media storytelling style and using the reach for their needs. This poses a serious threat as the potential to increase and pool support for extremists increases.
Political scientist Masala soberly analyzes that the West has “little” to counter the Islamists’ Internet propaganda. Islamist ideology is mostly limited to the group of already radicalized and those susceptible to it. And they are hardly receptive to counter-narratives from Western societies.
Western credibility weakened
“The Western narrative is going through an extremely difficult period in terms of terrorism,” added St-Pierre. “The chaos surrounding the situation in Afghanistan, the numerous errors and omissions, the portrayal of the withdrawal of troops as a withdrawal from Afghanistan and a defeat for NATO and, more importantly, the fact that the Taliban are recognized as the informal main power of Afghanistan, are borne out all contribute to strengthening terrorist propaganda. ”
This weakens the credibility of the West immensely, said the security advisor. For example, in the current circumstances, it is important to limit the reach of extremist propaganda, especially on easily accessible platforms such as social media.
The West and its security authorities are challenged: Hundreds of thousands of refugees at the gates of Europe could further destabilize the political situation in this country, fears constitutional protector Kramer. Not least because autocratic countries like Russia, China and Iran have an interest in Western states being under pressure.