The trip that the foreign ministers of Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia made to the Ukrainian capital on Wednesday was intended as a sign of solidarity. Shortly before midnight, the Estonian Eva-Maria Liimets presented an idyllic selfie from the night walk through “beautiful #Kiev” on Twitter, which showed her in front of St. Sophia Cathedral. A few hours later, the three ministers woke up to the war: the Russian invasion had begun.
The reaction of the three Baltic ministers was prompt and sharp. In the early morning they called in an explanation the immediate exclusion of Russia from the Swift international payments system and the country’s political isolation. They also demanded not only humanitarian and political support for the attacked Ukraine, but “the urgent supply of arms and ammunition to the Ukrainian people”. That the three countries anti-tank weapons of the type javelin and shoulder supported stingers– have delivered anti-aircraft missiles to Kiev, has broad support among the population.
In Vilnius, Lithuania’s President Gitanas Nausėda declared a state of emergency for his country, which will initially apply until March 10. Few nations have warned of the threat posed by Vladimir Putin for years like the Baltic states, which, like Ukraine, are direct neighbors of Russia and only regained their independence after the collapse of the Soviet Union. All three were occupied by dictator Stalin in 1940, and tens of thousands of men, women and children were then exiled from all countries. The use of the national languages was also suppressed for years under Stalin after the war and Russification was carried out.
Russia’s military superiority is growing
Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have been members of both the EU and NATO since 2004 – and they are among those members of the alliance who called for consultations under Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty on Thursday. The reason: They see the integrity of their own territory or their own security as threatened. Everyone in the region knows that Russia is militarily superior. In the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, which borders Lithuania and Poland and is only 500 kilometers from Berlin, Iskander-Missiles stationed, which can also be equipped with nuclear warheads.
Now the Belarusian autocrat Alexander Lukashenko seems ready to station tens of thousands of Russian soldiers on his territory. This would increase Russia’s military superiority even further, and Moscow could make it almost impossible for NATO partners to supply the Baltic states through the narrow “Suwałki Corridor”, which is already difficult. Kusti Salm, the highest official in the Estonian Defense Ministry, warned weeks ago “of this dramatic change,” which had not happened in the past few decades.
At the same time, government officials and politicians in all three countries are trying to calm their citizens. The Latvian Defense Minister Artis Pabriks, for example, stated that there is currently “no immediate military threat” to their countries. Nevertheless, all three are to increase their defense budgets. On Thursday, Latvia’s defense minister called for an increase to 2.5 percent of gross domestic product. A few weeks ago, Estonia announced that it would provide the army with an additional 380 million euros over the next four years. Estonia’s defense budget for 2022 is 748 million euros, which is 2.31 percent of economic output.
Beware of hybrid attacks from Russia
In addition, the Baltic States are preparing for hybrid threat scenarios. Estonia was the victim of the first global cyberattack in 2007 when Russian hackers paralyzed banks, government servers and numerous media websites after the monument to a Soviet soldier, which reminded many Estonians of the occupation, was moved in the capital Tallinn. Russian disinformation is another big issue, especially for Estonia and Latvia. There is a large Russian-speaking minority among its citizens. The Latvian broadcasting supervisory authority NEPLP announced on Thursday that it had banned several Russian TV stations from broadcasting for the next few years with immediate effect because they were only tools for Kremlin propaganda. NEPLP boss Ivars Āboliņš called on other EU member states to also ban broadcasters such as Rossija RTR, Rossija 24 or TV Center International.
Frustration can be read in many of the comments about what has been perceived in the Baltic countries for many years as negligent naivety and the excessive willingness of other European governments to compromise with Russia’s President Putin. Lithuanian parliament speaker Viktorija Čmilytė-Nielsen said she was ashamed of that part of the West “that for years has refused to embrace Putin’s imperial ambitions.” It is now all the more important “that the sanctions of the West are as tough as possible and the reaction as united as possible”.
Dalia Grybauskaitė, probably the most well-known politician in the Baltic States, is very skeptical about the effect of the planned punitive measures. Former EU Commissioner and President of Lithuania tweeted: “Sanctions will not stop the attacker, only punish. War criminals can only be stopped on the battlefield.”