War in Ukraine: “Russia’s propaganda is in full swing”

It is still unclear what is behind the rocket impact in Poland. The excitement associated with this is convenient for Russia, says military expert Gressel. This is also due to the fact that the military is in a phase of weakness.

tagesschau.de: After the rocket hit Poland, different versions of how it could have happened initially circulated, but investigations are now underway. How does the unrest that has arisen – also among Ukraine’s allies – affect further events?

Gustav Gressel: We still don’t know many details. The Polish Presidential Chancellery assumes that it is a Ukrainian anti-aircraft missile that landed in Poland. Now the question arises: which rocket was shot with it – i.e. where did the Russian attack take place, which it was actually supposed to repel? What can we conclude from this about Russian attack behavior?

There is a power line that goes from Poland to Ukraine and is important for the country’s power supply – it is relatively likely that Russia might have tried to attack it. If the attack really did take place, the question arises: is Russia really so bold as to fire on a target so close to the Polish border? You always have to reckon with the fact that something goes wrong during attacks and the consequences triggered could be great…

If it turns out that the Ukrainian anti-aircraft missile had a technical defect – for example, if it ignited the engine after launch and then the ballistic mode took effect because the control unit broke, then it may have come from relatively far and it would be just horrendous bad luck that it landed there of all places.

Lots of opportunities for enlightenment

tagesschau.de: When will the background be cleared up?

Gressel: I’m looking forward to the final report from the Polish authorities. Because it will say a lot about the extent to which Russia takes NATO seriously in this war. The investigation will take at least several days.

The Polish Air Force has a good radar near the border, which probably registered something, then there is data from NATO-AWACS – that is, from reconnaissance aircraft with satellite dishes, which also see very far. The US Army also operates electronic air reconnaissance in Poland, including with drones. However, there could be bureaucratic delays in the event of disagreements about the extent to which the findings of the investigation are classified as secret.

The problems of Russian propaganda

tagesschau.de: But the excitement that arose among NATO allies after the impact certainly suits Russia…

Gressel: Secure! Russian propaganda is in full swing; she’s always trying to spread stories like this: they’re talking about evil Ukraine attacking Poland, the irresponsibly amateurish Ukrainians fighting, and so on.

With Poland, however, disinformation has picked a tough nut to crack. Russia is so unpopular there that it hardly gets caught. The effect on Russia also plays a role in its own country: ridiculing the enemy, boosting the morale of its own troops.

But the Russian military plans its actions so far in advance and is so inflexible in its organization that I am rather skeptical about assessments that military strikes shortly after certain individual events are a direct military reaction by Russia.

“New starting position” after Cherson’s liberation

tagesschau.de: Ukraine recently recaptured Cherson to great jubilation. What new military situation has arisen?

Gressel: Both sides, the Ukrainian and the Russian, now have a new starting point in which some factors are more favorable to them than before. Ukraine saved itself a sector of the front where it deployed at least seven brigades. She can now withdraw it and use it elsewhere, because of course she can defend the Dnipro much more easily by dedicating forces to protect certain bridges.

On the Russian side, a large number of paratroopers, elite units, professional and contract soldiers of the first wave were deployed in Cherson. It makes sense for Russia to get them out of Cherson in order to give them to the newly formed forces as experienced forces after mobilization and to deploy them there as commanders and specialists – the army leadership had been pushing for this for a long time.

But it fell on deaf ears with Kremlin boss Vladimir Putin, because giving up Cherson after the prestigious annexation didn’t fit into the concept. It must also be said that with all that went wrong, this retreat was relatively orderly by Russian standards and since a relatively large number of personnel and equipment could probably be evacuated – ultimately this is also a partial success.

“Leverage Western Support”

tagesschau.de: On Tuesday, Russia again targeted civilian infrastructure in Ukraine, especially the energy supply. Is the strategy of terrorizing Ukraine still behind it, or does Russia simply have no other options for attacking, since weapons and personnel are running out?

Gressel: A problem for the Russian side is that they are now on the defensive, that the Ukrainian army is now stronger, more motivated, battle-hardened and taking the initiative. This phase of weakness is difficult to bridge. That is why these attacks are only important for morale, for perseverance, for showing strength in domestic politics for Russia.

But they also have an indirect military purpose: it’s less about weakening the Ukrainian army, which is relatively independent of civilian infrastructure. But the war also wants to be financed. And it costs Ukraine between 30 and 40 million euros a day.

The less it can generate itself in terms of economic output because the infrastructure has been destroyed and companies can only produce to a limited extent due to long power cuts, the more money the country has to raise by taking out loans in the West or resorting to donations.

All of this makes Ukraine more and more dependent on the West, because of course only the European Union, the United States and Canada have the money and the will to borrow these sums.

And now part of the Russian strategy is to leverage the West, Western support – this includes, firstly, propaganda, secondly, the attempt to promote Russia-friendly populists like Donald Trump in the United States a bit, but thirdly, they too Impact of such blows on the Ukrainian infrastructure with the calculation: inflationary shock, high energy prices – at some point that will be too expensive for the West.

“Lack of ammunition a major stumbling block”

tagesschau.de: The agreement on grain exports agreed between Russia and Ukraine expires at the end of this week. How do you currently assess the chances that an extension will succeed?

Gressel: I rate the chances as quite high because the pressure on Russia is relatively high – not necessarily from the West, but also from countries that were previously sympathetic to neutral towards Russia. The states that have so far remained loyal to Russia, for example in the case of oil price agreements, or have not condemned it at the United Nations, are all also dependent on grain deliveries from Ukraine or are at least net importers of agricultural goods.

This means that even if they don’t import from Ukraine, a global rise in grain prices will hit them hard because it also drives up food prices, inflation and people’s dissatisfaction there. Therefore, the complaints phone in the Kremlin is currently ringing loudly on many lines and Putin is accordingly under pressure to give in.

“Weather plays a bigger role than temperatures”

tagesschau.de: Winter is now beginning in Ukraine and is intensifying the misery caused by the destroyed electricity and energy supplies in the civilian population. But does it also play a military role?

Gressel: The weather plays a bigger role than the temperatures. If the ground is frozen, it’s bitterly cold, that favors the offensive: the attacker drives in a heated tank, the defender sits in a hole in the ground and freezes. Digging positions is difficult, but even a wheeled vehicle can easily move forward on frozen ground.

But when it rains, and the temperature repeatedly rises above zero and then falls, the ground softens, freezes again, softens again, and mud forms, which impedes progress. In September, too, we have had long periods of rain in Ukraine, which have hampered the Ukrainian offensive.

Of course, the Ukrainians are now trying to seize the opportunity: most of the forces mobilized by Russia are not yet in Ukraine – that’s when it’s easier to retake territory. If the forces are sufficient, it may well be that we will see another Ukrainian counter-offensive on occupied territory by the turn of the year. However, a lack of ammunition is the far greater stumbling block than the weather.

The conversation was led by Jasper Steinlein, tagesschau.de.