What consequences can a war in Ukraine have? On Wednesday evening, the US Ambassador to the United Nations, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, was the first to speak in plain language in New York: If there were an invasion by Russia, “according to our estimates, it could trigger a new refugee crisis, one of the largest in the world the world is facing today – with up to five million more displaced people.”
For a long time, international politics and the people of Ukraine had hoped that the worst would not happen. After Thursday’s attacks, which also hit targets in the capital region around Kiev, many residents of the city fled. There were kilometers of traffic jams on the arterial roads. The goal of the people was not only the area around the capital and the western parts of the country. Many tried to get out of the country on Thursday. According to eyewitnesses, queues of cars formed on the border with Moldova.
Concern is growing in Europe’s capitals that the Russian attack will also trigger a serious humanitarian crisis. The Ukrainian civilian population is threatened with terrible suffering, Interior Minister Nancy Faeser (SPD) warned in Berlin. In view of the “violation of international law” Russian attack on Ukraine, the federal government is preparing for the consequences – above all possible refugee movements, but also protests and cyber attacks. “Our security authorities are ramping up the protective measures,” said Faeser.
Conditions like 2015? Nobody knows if that will happen
Already on Thursday one crisis meeting followed the next. Faeser was not only connected to the interior ministers of the federal states, but also to the heads of security agencies such as the Federal Criminal Police Office and the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution.
The federal government initially expects serious consequences, especially in neighboring countries. If there were “large movements of refugees”, Germany would “giving massive support to the countries affected – especially our neighboring country Poland”, said Faeser. The minister announced that refugees would be admitted to Germany without any bureaucracy. Corresponding regulations should be introduced across the EU on Thursday. The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, Filippo Grandi, also expressed dismay at the escalation of the conflict. “The humanitarian consequences for the civilian population will be devastating,” he said.
Conditions like those in 2015, when a mass flight towards Europe and Germany began because of the war in Syria, were not yet expected in the case of Ukraine. On Thursday, there was talk in government circles of initially a few thousand people who could seek refuge in Germany. A few days ago, it was said in Faeser’s environment that it was more likely that Ukrainian war refugees would first seek protection in their own country, further west or in Poland. The massiveness of the Russian attack, however, could destroy even such assumptions in a very short time.
In the meantime, demands were being made from the federal states to make even more preparations in Germany for taking in people fleeing. The humanitarian dimension of the crisis deserves more attention, demanded Berlin’s Social and Integration Senator Katja Kipping (left). “Humanitarian aid, reception and protection are now the order of the day. We will prepare for the fact that many war refugees could come to Berlin.” The Senate expects several thousand to tens of thousands of people seeking protection in the capital alone.
A refugee movement is also likely to have an impact on European asylum policy. When it comes to the question of how refugees can be distributed in the EU, the vast majority of Eastern European countries have so far leaned back and left the problem to hard-hit Mediterranean countries such as Italy or Greece, or optionally to countries like Germany that are willing to accept them. This could change now. With the invasion of Ukraine, Poland could be the first Eastern European EU country to experience what it means to be dependent on European solidarity.
Germany’s interior ministers also see a tense situation in Germany in other areas. A warning about possible cyber attacks was sent to critical infrastructure companies a few days ago. The protection of the constitution fears attacks in the course of the Ukraine conflict. The authorities are also “prepared for protests and demonstrations in Germany,” said Faeser. This involves, for example, protecting facilities in both countries in Germany that could become the target of attacks.
Baden-Württemberg’s head of department Thomas Strobl made it clear after the meeting that the interior ministers had switched to crisis mode. “From now on, the interior ministers will remain in daily contact,” announced Strobl.