War in Ukraine: next key battle for Sloviansk?

According to the Ukrainian General Staff, the Russian army has strengthened its positions near the city of Sloviansk. British intelligence wants to know that the troops are 16 kilometers north of the city.

Day-to-day war has caught up with Ukraine once again: air raid alarms on almost the entire territory of the country for the second night in a row. For several weeks, fighting had been confined to the east and south and a few regions in central Ukraine. Now the Ukrainian media showed how the entire national map turned red. Then the population has to go to the air-raid shelter, now and then – like this time in the middle of the night. Russia apparently continues to rely on massive rocket attacks.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the Ukrainian leadership is trying to build modern and adequate missile defense systems. “This is the maximum task for our state. We want to ensure basic security for Ukrainians this year, basic protection against rocket attacks. But that depends not only on us, but also on our partners’ understanding of our fundamental needs.”

Comprehensive defense rather unlikely

The Ukrainian side will probably not be able to set up a comprehensive umbrella over the Ukraine – too many systems would be necessary, and the negotiations and deliveries too slow. Above all, the air defense systems NASAMS are to be used, from the USA and Norway as well as Iris-T from Germany.

This would be particularly urgent for the Mykolaiv region west of the Crimea. According to the regional authorities, there have been rocket attacks there almost every day for several weeks. The southern Ukrainian military is also observing a growing threat from the Russian Navy. “The naval group of the enemy forces consists of four surface missile carriers and two submarines. It continues to block navigation. There is a threat from 40 cruise missiles,” says Vladislav Nazarov.

Civilians are to leave Sloviansk

According to the Ukrainian armed forces, the number of missiles and Russian warships has continued to rise in recent days.

In the Donbass, the armed forces are preparing for the advance of Russian troops. The regional governor of Donetsk region called on residents to evacuate because of the chaotic shelling from the Russian side, especially from Sloviansk. Attacks there have increased significantly over the past few days.

According to British intelligence, the Russian troops are said to be 16 kilometers north of the city. According to the British, the next key battle could unfold around Sloviansk.

“War can drag on”

Now, in the fifth month of the war, many Ukrainians are realizing that it can still last a long time and that many more could still be called up for the front. “Let’s be completely honest with each other. Chances are that the war against the Russian enemy can drag on,” says Serhiy Brachuck, spokesman for the Odessa regional military administration. Then the majority of men who are reasonably healthy will serve in the military. “And not just serve, but fight in war. And a large proportion of women will be forced to fight. Because the armed forces that are currently fighting need replacements.” The use directly in combat could therefore come closer for many.

Discussion about conscripts and reservists

How sensitive Ukrainian society is to this can be seen in the current discussion about conscripts and reservists. Yesterday, the general staff announced a reporting obligation: Anyone who wants to leave the borders of their region needs permission to do so. The outrage boiled over within hours. Already in the evening, President Zelenskyj felt under pressure and had to calm things down. He wanted a detailed report of the plans. And he publicly urged the army command not to make any decisions with him without consultation in the future.