What sanctions affecting aviation apply?
The European Union does not allow Russian aircraft to fly to Europe. In retaliation, the Russian government closed its own airspace to European airlines. This decision affects not only flights to and from Russia, but also overflights through the particularly important Siberian airspace. In addition, all Western suppliers have stopped providing services to Russian airlines. They no longer get planes or spare parts. European-based aircraft leasing companies have canceled contracts for several hundred planes flying in Russia. The reservation systems Saber and Amadeus have discontinued Aeroflot.
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Which flights are affected by the airspace closure?
There is currently no air traffic between Russia and the EU. In addition, more or less all airlines flying from Europe to Asia have to reschedule their flight routes. You must circumnavigate Russian airspace either north or south. This is particularly problematic for routes from Europe to North and East Asia, such as the connection from Frankfurt to Tokyo or Shanghai. But American airlines have also used Siberian airspace on their way to Southeast Asia.
How much longer are the flight times?
Japan Airlines now has to plan the largest detour on the flight from Tokyo to London. The route is no longer routed through Siberia, but eastward through Alaska and northern Canada. The planes are now three hours longer on the way to Europe and four and a half hours longer on the way back. Lufthansa is now shifting the Frankfurt-Tokyo route south around Russia, which means around two hours longer flight times on the return flight and around one and a half hours more on the way to Asia. Qantas maintains the non-stop flight from Darwin to London, which is a good 18 hours in the air, even on the shortest route, depending on the wind. Now the Boeing 787-9 is on the road for another hour because it has to switch to a southern route via the Middle East.
Which airlines are particularly affected?
As far as overflights are concerned, it’s the Japanese airlines and probably Finnair in Europe. They were all forced to remove a number of routes from the program, at least temporarily, because the flights were no longer economical or could no longer be carried out due to the distance. Finnair has specialized in long-haul routes to Asia due to the geographic location of the Helsinki hub. Within Europe, Ukraine International Airlines is naturally the most severely affected. But Wizz Air and Ryanair also offered numerous flights in Ukraine up to the outbreak of the war. At Lufthansa, business in Russia and Ukraine normally accounts for only one percent of sales.
Is there enough space on the southern airways for all aircraft?
At the moment there are no serious capacity problems. This is mainly due to the fact that the traffic between Europe and Asia is currently only a fraction of the normal level due to the corona pandemic. Lufthansa, for example, flies around ten percent of its capacity, while many other airlines operate on a similar scale. However, with more and more Asian countries slowly reopening their airspace, it should only be a matter of time before airway capacity becomes a problem, especially since night flight restrictions in Europe only allow certain times of the day for flights. Also, don’t forget that Russia isn’t the only airspace currently closed. For safety reasons, airlines are currently avoiding the Ukraine and Moldova and flying around Afghanistan.
What does the air fare crisis mean?
Airline costs are increasing and they will try to pass these costs on to passengers through higher fares. The reason is less the longer flights. The much bigger problem is the strong and rapidly rising oil price, which is not only a burden for the airlines on Asia flights, but in general. The higher costs for services and salaries are also noticeable. As always, whether higher ticket prices can be enforced depends on supply and demand and is difficult to predict. In the historical trend, they have fallen over the last few decades. However, Lufthansa recently reported that it was able to charge higher prices.
Are flights going via Eastern Europe safe?
According to all that can be known about it, yes. The airspace above and near Ukraine is avoided anyway. There are various platforms through which aviation safety authorities such as the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) and the airlines exchange safety-related information. After the downing of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 over Ukraine in 2014, there were efforts to improve the system.