War in Ukraine: how far is the counter-offensive in Kherson?

While Ukraine is claiming initial successes in recapturing Cherson, Russia’s leadership seems increasingly nervous. The fighting in southern Ukraine does not yet clearly show who has cause for concern.

The Cherson region is ready for the planned “referendum on joining the Russian Federation” – but “due to the security situation” a “pause” has been taken. That’s how succinctly the Russian state agency TASS reported it – citing Kirill Stremoussow, who appears there as deputy head of the “military-civilian administration” set up by the Russian occupiers in the spring. “‘Security reasons’ means that apparently the Ukrainian offensive is really causing problems for Russia,” concludes Claudia Major from the Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik in the joint morning magazine of ARD and ZDF from the information.

Even if it remains unclear for how long the referendum that has been invoked for months has been suspended, one thing is clear: six months after the start of the invasion, in which Cherson was one of the first occupied cities, things don’t seem to be going according to plan for Moscow.

Last week, the Ukrainian government spoke of heavy fighting in the region: there was talk of the recapture of small towns and the destruction of several Russian bases. The US Institute for the Study of War recently credited the offensive with “demonstrable progress” but added that the pace would vary “dramatically” from day to day.

“At the moment there seems to be some momentum in the Ukrainian advance again,” military expert Gustav Gressel from the European Council On Foreign Affairs in Berlin told tagesschau.de. Ukrainian forces tried to “thin out” Russia’s troops on the Dnipro River and force them into action to run out of ammunition and fuel supplies.

Because in the meantime it has become difficult for Russia to deliver supplies to southern Ukraine – the bridges over the Dnipro that have been used so far are no longer passable, the capacities for supply via helicopters and makeshift boat fleet are low. “This gives the Ukrainians more and more options for action,” analyzes Gressel – even if this is not yet expressed in terms of land gains. In any case, Ukraine would not have the necessary superiority in terms of armed forces and ammunition for a counterattack on a broad front.

Recruitment in mental hospitals?

The Ministry of Defense in Moscow had initially described the long-announced Ukrainian counter-offensive around Cherson as unsuccessful. But many individual signals from Russia paint a nervous picture: Although Stremoussov always affirms in video broadcasts for Russian television that Cherson now belongs inviolably and forever to Russia – in a recent such report he clearly spoke of the Marriott Hotel in Voronezh, hundreds of kilometers away out.

Russian military bloggers have also recently admitted that frontline activities are unfavorable for Russia – and according to reports, the morale of the troops is increasingly low, while recruiting additional troops remains difficult: On Monday, Russian-speaking accounts on social networks made the rounds with bitter malice that the The district defense office of Saint Petersburg is now advertising for recruits with an advertisement on the website of a state psychoneurological treatment facility.

“All of this costs resources”

Gustav Gressel also shares the impression of a certain nervousness on the Russian side. In Cherson, things didn’t go according to plan for the Kremlin in several respects: “One of them is of course the support in the occupied territories, which is more or less absent.” After the rapid conquest of Cherson, only a comparatively small number of people were able to flee from there – but they unanimously say that the initial rejection of the population, expressed in street protests, has not changed: Russian shops and services are avoided as far as possible, the Russification of companies, identity papers and financial transactions only implemented out of necessity.

“There are also significant problems in terms of recruiting civil servants,” says expert Gressel. “Basically, Russia has to do everything itself and send its own people – including from the National Guard and the FSB secret service, to maintain internal security. And of course all of that costs resources.”

There are also repeated reports of partisan activities committing acts of sabotage in the occupied territory or reporting Russian positions to the Ukrainian armed forces. Here, too, Gressel emphasizes, the Ukrainian forces needed time to scout out their opponents and then exploit weak points.

“Cat and Mouse Game”

The Kremlin and the occupation regime controlled from there are still not moving away from their declared war goal of annexing the Cherson region and the entire Ukraine to Russia – so far at any price. “The referendum wasn’t cancelled, it’s just been postponed for the time being. Russia is still sticking to the idea of ​​annexing these areas and turning them into Russian territory. And what’s more: Russia can continue the so-called de-Ukrainization policy without a referendum – even without it referendum, the population there can be suppressed,” warns Claudia Major morning magazine.

At the moment, Gressel doesn’t see Russia getting involved in ruinous battles or downright suicide missions, but emphasizes: “This cat-and-mouse game will go on for a long time.” According to the Ukrainian armed forces, the first line of defense of the Russian forces has been breached in some places – but behind them are others into which the troops were able to dig deep after six months of occupation.

Even with larger gains in territory, Ukraine’s success is not automatic, the expert explains: “The deeper they penetrate, the more they have to pull their own air defenses to get rid of the Russian air force. There can be a lot of coordination problems that can arise the Ukrainians are waiting – and depending on which side is better at improvising, an advance is slower or faster.” In the course of the war so far, the Ukrainian armed forces have shown themselves to be the stronger side when acting on the move and improvising quickly.

But when it finally comes down to conquering the city of Cherson itself, the conditions in urban combat are again different than in the field – and Gressel hints that Ukraine could also pay a high price for success: after the withdrawal of Russian troops From Bucha and Irpin, for example, the world public found masses of civilians tortured and shot. Many of them had apparently only been killed shortly before the withdrawal.