War in Ukraine: How credible is the information on the counter-offensive?

Ukraine’s counteroffensive has been underway since June to liberate territory occupied by Russia. Because Ukraine keeps a low profile with information, the media often resort to Russian information. Experts are skeptical.

Long awaited, in June the time had come: Ukraine’s counteroffensive. More than a year after the start of the Russian war of aggression, the second attempt by the Ukrainian army to liberate Russian-held territories has begun. However, some media reports suggest that Ukraine has made significant failures in its endeavour.

In particular, the report of several lost tanks in the Zaporizhia Oblast in southern Ukraine made the rounds. “Focus Online” reported on a “disaster” in which “dozens of the best Western vehicles were destroyed” and “many Ukrainians were killed or injured,” according to a video. The counter-offensive was proceeding “differently than planned”: there were apparently no major gains in territory, and the number of wounded and dead soldiers was increasing. The “Frankfurter Rundschau” called it a “leopard disaster”.

The sources for this assessment include recordings by the Russian Ministry of Defense, which published images and videos of the allegedly destroyed tanks. Ukraine lost eleven tanks in Mala Tokmachka alone, including three Leopard tanks. However, the Russian statements about the alleged losses in Ukraine should be viewed with caution. Especially in connection with allegedly destroyed western tanks already existed some false reports. For example, a video of an allegedly destroyed Leopard tank actually showed agricultural equipment.

Figures from Russia “often massively exaggerated”

The fact that there is primarily information from Russia on the counter-offensive is due to the fact that Ukraine has largely imposed a news blackout. The Russian Defense Ministry is trying to exploit this situation, says Julia Smirnova, senior researcher at the Institute for Strategic Dialogue Germany (ISD). “This is a focus of Russian propaganda, and the figures given are often massively exaggerated.” The Russian Ministry of Defense is therefore not credible.

The Dutch open source intelligence website (OSINT) Oryx wrote on Twitter about a total of six abandoned tanks in Zaporizhia Oblast, including a Leopard tank, four Bradleys and a mine clearance tank. However, left behind does not mean destroyed. Overall are the According to research by Oryx So far, eight Leopard tanks in Ukraine have been destroyed or damaged since the Russian invasion began.

“Equipment is destroyed in war”

From the point of view of experts, it was to be expected that Ukraine would lose military equipment in the counter-offensive. Carlo Masala, Professor of International Politics at the Bundeswehr University in Munich, said about it on ZDF: “It is war, and in war equipment is destroyed.” The problem with Ukraine is that it has to attack. From Masala’s point of view, however, she does not have the sufficient number of people for this. The Russian troops would therefore have an easier time defending themselves. The device breaks.

The expectation that Ukraine would be able to show quick successes without suffering losses was exaggerated from the start, says Ulf Steindl from the Austria Institute for European and Security Policy (AIES). “It’s perfectly normal for even the most modern equipment to be lost in war,” he says. “That was to be expected, even if it hurts Ukraine, of course.” Especially since Ukraine does not have sufficient air defense systems, Russia has been able to operate very successfully with combat helicopters, for example.

According to Steindl, however, the pictures of the tanks apparently left behind do not show how high the losses actually are. “Some of the vehicles are no longer mobile, but can very well be repaired.” In addition, the crew is very well protected in the western tanks, which is of great importance. “It is important that the crew survives so that they can then be deployed again with their experience.”

Masala thinks so too. He told ZDF that one hears that in all probability no one who was in the western tanks died in the fighting.

Counter-offensive still in early phase

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky himself has already noted that the Ukrainian counter-offensive is “not progressing quickly”. “But we’re still advancing and not retreating like the Russians are doing,” he added. According to experts, this has to do with Russian air superiority, among other things. In addition, Russia was able to prepare for the counteroffensive and, for example, lay mines.

In order to make any progress at all, Ukraine must first breach these minefields, says Steindl. The mine clearance tanks would be supported by the main battle tanks to increase the pressure and draw out reserves within artillery range. “And that’s what happens,” says Steindl. Many of the newly created brigades and battalions would not yet be used by the Ukraine. “The counter-offensive is a long process, it is still in the early stages.” It is therefore wrong to want to infer the outcome of the counter-offensive from a local setback.

Overall, it is still far too early to make an assessment, says Steindl. “We are still at the very beginning of the counter-offensive, in which pressure is initially being built up,” says Steindl. The focus on the part of the Ukraine is therefore initially on combating the Russian artillery systems and logistics and not on large gains in territory.

Media reports are used for propaganda

With hasty headlines about Ukraine’s supposed failures, the media would play into the hands of Russian propaganda, says Smirnova. “The Russian media are trying to portray the Ukrainian offensive as a failure. Especially with regard to the alleged destruction of Western technology, attempts are being made to make Western aid for Ukraine appear pointless and futile.” The message is that Ukraine cannot win this war and the West is spending a lot of money for nothing.

According to Smirnova, German media reports describing the counter-offensive as unsuccessful would be readily picked up and disseminated by pro-Russian propagandists. For example, collages of German headlines have been shared in several pro-Russian telegram channels. Among other things, it says: “The German-language media seem to have an inkling of the extent of the failure of the counter-offensive in Ukraine” and “to prepare the Germans for defeat”.

“Exaggerated, lurid or inaccurate headlines are a gift for propaganda and disinformation channels,” says Smirnova. “They are specifically translated in pro-Russian telegram channels to underpin their own narrative.”

In addition, an article in the “Berliner Zeitung” was misquoted in a pro-Russian channel. There, the author Franz Becchi becomes a German “military analyst” who is quoted as saying: “Western states delivered expensive tanks to Ukraine with great expectations. But the Ukraine did not live up to our hopes.” However, this passage cannot be found in the linked article.

Flood of information on social media

According to Steindl, the fact that people are sometimes quick to judge Ukraine’s success or failure also has something to do with social media. Because of this there is a flood of pictures and videos that went around the world in a very short time. It is all the more important to verify the information and not to draw any hasty conclusions. It will only be possible to assess with certainty how Ukraine’s counter-offensive will ultimately be assessed in the autumn.

Smirnova also warns that the speed in social media can be exploited by disinformation actors to fill the information vacuum with their own messages. “Social media can create the illusion of being well-informed. In fact, they also create a condition for the dissemination of false or misleading information.” Journalists should therefore not be tempted to fill the information vacuum with information from the Russian Ministry of Defense, for example – or at least classify it accordingly.