War in Ukraine: How credible are the information about the counteroffensive?

Ukraine’s counteroffensive has been underway since June to liberate territory occupied by Russia. Because Ukraine keeps a low profile with information, the media often resorts to Russian information. Experts are skeptical about this.

It was long awaited, but in June it finally happened: Ukraine’s counteroffensive. More than a year after the start of the Russian war of aggression, the Ukrainian army’s second attempt to liberate Russian-occupied territories has begun. But some media reports give the impression that Ukraine has suffered significant failures in its efforts.

In particular, the report of several lost tanks in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast in southern Ukraine made the rounds. “Focus Online” reported on a “catastrophe” in which “dozens of the best Western vehicles were destroyed” and “many Ukrainians were killed or injured,” according to a video. The counter-offensive was going “differently than planned”: there were apparently no major gains in terrain and the number of wounded and dead soldiers was increasing. The “Frankfurter Rundschau” called it a “Leopard disaster”.

The source for this assessment is, among other things, recordings from the Russian Ministry of Defense, which published images and videos of the allegedly destroyed tanks. Ukraine lost eleven tanks in Mala Tokmachka alone, including three Leopard tanks. However, Russian information about Ukraine’s alleged losses should be viewed with caution. There have already been cases, particularly in connection with allegedly destroyed Western tanks some Hoaxes. A video of a supposedly destroyed Leopard tank actually showed agricultural equipment.

Figures from Russia “often massively exaggerated”

The fact that there is primarily information from Russia on the counteroffensive is because Ukraine has largely imposed a news blackout. The Russian Defense Ministry is trying to exploit this situation, says Julia Smirnova, senior researcher at the Institute for Strategic Dialogue Germany (ISD). “This is a focus of Russian propaganda, and the figures cited are often massively exaggerated.” The Russian Ministry of Defense is therefore not credible.

The Dutch open source intelligence website (OSINT) Oryx wrote on Twitter of a total of six abandoned tanks in Zaporizhia Oblast, including a Leopard tank, four Bradleys and a mine clearing tank. However, left behind does not mean destroyed. Overall, the According to research by Oryx Since the beginning of the Russian invasion, eight Ukrainian Leopard tanks have been destroyed or damaged.

“In war, devices are destroyed”

From the perspective of experts, it was to be expected that Ukraine would lose military equipment in the counteroffensive. Carlo Masala, Professor of International Politics at the University of the Bundeswehr in Munich, said on ZDF: “It’s war, and in war equipment is destroyed.” Ukraine has the problem that it has to attack. From Masala’s point of view, however, she does not have the sufficient number of people. The Russian troops would therefore have an easier time defending themselves. This causes the device to break.

The expectation that Ukraine could achieve quick successes without incurring its own losses was exaggerated from the start, says Ulf Steindl from the Austria Institute for European and Security Policy (AIES). “It’s completely normal for even the most modern equipment to be lost during war,” he says. “That was to be expected, even if it obviously hurts Ukraine.” Especially since Ukraine does not have sufficient anti-aircraft systems, Russia has been able to operate very successfully with attack helicopters, for example.

However, based on the pictures of the tanks that were apparently left behind, it is not possible to tell how high the losses actually were, said Steindl. “Some of the vehicles are no longer mobile, but they can certainly be repaired.” In addition, the crew of Western tanks is very well protected, which is very important. “It is important that the crew survives so that they can then be deployed again with their experience.”

Masala sees it that way too. He told ZDF that in all likelihood no one sitting in the Western tanks died in the fighting.

Counteroffensive still in its early stages

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has already noted that the Ukrainian counteroffensive is not progressing quickly. “But still we are advancing and not retreating like the Russians are doing,” he added. According to experts, this has, among other things, to do with Russian air superiority. In addition, Russia was able to prepare for the counteroffensive and, for example, lay mines.

In order to make any progress at all, Ukraine must first break through these minefields, says Steindl. The mine clearing tanks would be supported by the main battle tanks in order to increase the pressure and draw out reserves within artillery range. “And that’s what happens,” says Steindl. Many of the newly formed brigades and battalions have not yet been deployed by Ukraine. “The counteroffensive is a long process, it is still in the early phase.” It is therefore wrong to draw conclusions about the outcome of the counteroffensive from a local setback.

Overall, it is still far too early to make an assessment, says Steindl. “We are still at the very beginning of the counteroffensive, in which pressure is initially being built up,” says Steindl. The focus on Ukraine’s side is therefore initially on combating Russian artillery systems and logistics and not on major gains in territory.

Media reports are used for propaganda

With hasty headlines about Ukraine’s alleged failures, the media is playing into the hands of Russian propaganda, says Smirnova. “The Russian media is trying to portray the Ukrainian offensive as a failure. Especially in view of the alleged destruction of Western technology, an attempt is being made to make Western aid to Ukraine appear pointless and futile.” The message is that Ukraine cannot win this war and that the West is spending a lot of money for nothing.

German media reports describing the counteroffensive as unsuccessful would be readily picked up and spread by pro-Russian propagandists, Smirnova said. For example, collages of German headlines have been shared in several pro-Russian Telegram channels. Among other things, it says: “The German-speaking media seem to suspect the extent of the failure of the counteroffensive in Ukraine” and are “preparing the Germans for defeat.”

“Exaggerated, sensational or inaccurate headlines are a gift to propaganda and disinformation channels,” says Smirnova. “They are specifically translated in pro-Russian Telegram channels to support their own narrative.”

An article from the “Berliner Zeitung” is also misquoted in a pro-Russian channel. There, the author Franz Becchi becomes a German “military analyst” who is quoted as saying: “With great expectations, Western states delivered expensive tanks to Ukraine. But Ukraine has not fulfilled our hopes.” However, this passage cannot be found in the linked article.

Flood of information on social media

In Steindl’s opinion, the fact that people sometimes make hasty judgments about Ukraine’s success or failure also has to do with social media. Because of this there is a flood of images and videos that go around the world in a very short space of time. This makes it all the more important to verify the information and not jump to conclusions. How Ukraine’s counteroffensive will ultimately be assessed will only be able to be assessed with certainty in the fall.

Smirnova also warns that the speed of social media can be exploited by disinformation actors to fill the information vacuum with their own messages. “Social media can create the illusion that you are well informed. But in fact, it also creates a prerequisite for the spread of false or misleading information.” Journalists should therefore not be tempted to fill the information vacuum with information from the Russian Ministry of Defense, for example – or at least classify it accordingly.