Watch the video: Colonel Markus Reisner from the General Staff of the Austrian Armed Forces assesses the situation in the Ukraine war.
The current situation resembles a trench warfare, according to Reisner and Ukraine is unable to go on the offensive again, “the longer Ukraine waits to do so, the more time Russia has to dig in at the appropriate lines, to bring in troops who are in the been absent for the past few weeks.”
“In the past few months, it has become clear that essential weapon systems have not been delivered, despite Ukraine’s demands.” “The tank debate is very symbolic, because in reality there are a number of other weapon systems when it comes to making a decisive breakthrough. If Ukraine wants to win this war for itself (…), then it needs massive support from a whole range of weapon systems.”
Russia is militarily superior to Ukraine
The Russian army had about 3300 tanks at the beginning of the war, it is estimated that 1300 were lost. Of the 10,000 to 11,000 tanks that are still available deep in the country, Russia is able to repair at least 2,000 more. “So here we have 4,000 tanks that are still available. Of course, these 4,000 tanks have to be defeated. On the other hand, there is Ukraine, which also has constant losses. And the numbers we are discussing are very, very small, they are 10 units -15 (…) and not comparable to the thousand on the other side.”
Russia is again more successful at the front, which is mainly due to the successful mobilization. Although there were initial difficulties with mobilization, over time Russia has gotten into the routine of mobilization. Mobilization is important because the Russian army has had a shortage of infantry forces since the beginning of the war. With the new forces, Russia is trying to go on the offensive again, although Ukraine has the problem that it is now in the 8th or 10th wave of mobilization and older and older men are coming to the front.”
“Militarily, mass is always decisive”
The likelihood of Ukraine regaining its territory this year is slim unless massive efforts are made to support Ukraine. “At the moment we don’t see the deliveries of large quantities of combat vehicles etc. and that’s the problem, from a military point of view it’s always the mass that counts.”
Vivian Bahlmann talks to Colonel Markus Reisner from the General Staff of the Austrian Armed Forces.