In the middle of the night, Iran’s air defenses are activated. After a suspected Israeli attack, fears of further escalation in the Middle East are growing. Is Iran fighting back?
According to consistent media reports, Israel carried out a retaliatory action against Iran in response to last weekend’s major attack. The New York Times reported on an early morning Israeli military operation in Iran, citing two unnamed Israeli and three Iranian government officials. According to the Israeli newspaper Jerusalem Post, the attack targeted an air force base in Isfahan, central Iran, not far from Iranian nuclear facilities. According to the International Atomic Energy Agency, these were not hit.
No other damage was reported. Iranian state media rejected US media reports of a missile attack. It was simply said that several small flying objects were shot at in the sky over the Iranian province of Isfahan during the night. Israel and the US Defense Department did not comment on the action. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken told a meeting of G7 foreign ministers in Capri that he would not “elaborate on this – other than to say that the United States was not involved in any offensive operations.”
Police operation in Paris
Meanwhile, the French police are on duty at the Iranian consulate in Paris due to a possible threat situation. A witness said he saw a man with a grenade or an explosive belt entering the consulate around 11 a.m., the Paris police prefecture said. The suspicious man has now left the consulate and is being checked.
According to information, a special police unit was in action and the area was cordoned off. Numerous police officers could be seen on television images. Further details were initially not known.
Cautious reactions on both sides
Media in Israel and Iran reacted cautiously to the alleged Israeli attack. Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi gave a speech to supporters during a trip to Semnan province, but made no mention of the attack near the city of Isfahan. Observers see the cautious reactions as a sign that the two countries want to downplay the action in order to avoid further escalation.
Fearing a new major war in the Middle East, the USA, Great Britain, Germany and other countries repeatedly called on Iran and Israel to de-escalate.
Over the weekend, Iran directly attacked Israel for the first time with more than 300 missiles and drones. The background to the Iranian missile and drone attacks was a suspected Israeli-led attack on the Iranian embassy compound in the Syrian capital Damascus, in which two generals of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard were killed at the beginning of April. Iran’s leadership then announced retaliation. In recent days, Iran’s military leadership has threatened a decisive response if Israel attacks Iran. Never before have the enemy countries been so close to war.
According to analysts, whether the signs point to de-escalation also depends on whether Israel leaves it alone with the alleged retaliatory strike and how and whether Iran still reacts.
Observer: Warning to Iran or test run
In an optimistic scenario, Israel’s goal was to send a serious warning to Iran, wrote Hamidreza Azizi, a visiting scholar at the Berlin Foundation for Science and Politics, on the platform X, formerly Twitter. In a pessimistic scenario, Israel’s goal was to test Iran’s defense systems or to disable the defenses responsible for defending strategic centers in Isfahan. “In this case, we should expect more – and possibly more comprehensive – attacks on Iranian territory,” Azizi said.
According to US military expert Cedric Leighton, Israel has proven that the Iranian air defense system does not have anywhere near the capabilities of the Israeli air defense system with the action, which was “clearly a direct response to the Iranian attacks over the weekend.”
CNN military expert Mark MacCarley said: “The Israelis had to retaliate, but that retaliation also carried a message that: Yes, we can do it. Don’t do it again. If you do it again, chaos will ensue. “
Calls for de-escalation
US Secretary of State Blinken again called for de-escalation. With a view to the Iranian attack on Israel at the weekend, he said at the G7 foreign ministers in Capri: “We are committed to Israel’s security.” Efforts are also being made to de-escalate the situation. Chancellor Olaf Scholz also warned again on Friday that the conflict would expand. “Everyone must ensure now and in the near future that there is no further escalation of the war,” he said. Germany represents this position together with its allies. Representatives of Arab states made similar statements.
Isfahan: cultural city and center of the arms industry
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in Vienna confirmed that no Iranian nuclear facilities were damaged. IAEA chief Rafael Grossi continues to “call on everyone to exercise extreme restraint,” said a statement on X, formerly Twitter. Nuclear facilities should never be targets in military conflicts, he emphasized.
Isfahan is home to important facilities for the Iranian defense industry, including rocket manufacturing factories. The country’s largest nuclear research center is also located in the cultural city with around two million inhabitants. According to the radio, there was no danger to the nuclear facilities there. At the end of January 2023, a Defense Ministry ammunition factory near the metropolis of Isfahan was attacked with several small aircraft in Iran. At the time, the government in Tehran blamed its arch-enemy Israel as the mastermind of the attack.
From shadow war to open conflict
In the months after the Gaza War began in October 2023, the decades-old conflict between Israel and the Islamic Republic of Iran has escalated dramatically. The Jewish state finds itself under attack on multiple fronts following attacks by militias allied with Iran in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen. Since the 1979 revolution, the USA and Israel have been considered archenemies of the Islamic Republic. Netanyahu has also described Iran as his “most important enemy” in the past.
Israel sees Iran’s controversial nuclear program and massive missile and drone arsenal as the greatest threat to its existence. The US has repeatedly accused Tehran of seeking nuclear weapons. Iran denies the allegations and asserts that its nuclear program is used for purely civilian purposes. A religious legal opinion by Khamenei had banned weapons of mass destruction as incompatible with Islam.