fact finder
Hamas reports thousands of deaths as a result of Israeli attacks on the Gaza Strip. Israel doubts the terrorist militia’s portrayal. Who determines the numbers – and what do international organizations say about the information?
Who compiles the statistics on the number of deaths in the Gaza Strip?
The Ministry of Health in the Gaza Strip, which is controlled by the militant Islamist Hamas, is counting the victims. The ministry is the only official source.
The ministry does not distinguish between civilians and members of Hamas or the terrorist organization “Islamic Jihad”. In addition, no cause of death is given: all of the dead were “victims of Israeli violence.”
How are the numbers determined?
At Shifa Hospital in Gaza City, all victims’ data is collected into a computer system. Hospital administrators say they keep records of every wounded man who occupies a bed and every body that is delivered. The data is shared with other institutions and the Ministry of Health.
The names of the victims are not always known, ministry spokesman Ashraf Al-Qidra told the AP news agency. In addition, there are frequent system disruptions, meaning that some of the data has to be checked over the phone.
The ministry also collects data from other sources, including the Palestinian Red Crescent. “Every person who enters our hospital is recorded,” said Atef Alkahlout, director of the Indonesian hospital in Gaza.
The UN Children’s Fund UNICEF publishes its own statistics on the number of children killed. At the request of ARD fact finder According to the source of the numbers, there was no concrete answer.
A spokesperson wrote: “In ongoing emergencies and conflicts, the United Nations monitors all relevant and available reports and uses data from various sources. This includes UN staff and other sources on the ground, human rights organizations, non-governmental organizations, authorities and media.”
How are the numbers checked?
There is no independent review. Israel has sealed off Gaza’s borders, preventing foreign journalists and humanitarian workers from entering the region. Press representatives already in the Gaza Strip are unable to do so due to the dangers and chaotic conditions.
In addition, journalists in the Gaza Strip were already exposed to massive pressure from Hamas before the start of the recent war. The organization Reporters Without Borders speaks of severe restrictions on reporting, arrests and interrogations. The organization ranks the Palestinian territories 156th out of 180 in its press freedom rankings.
Who trusts the numbers?
The United Nations and other international institutions and experts generally consider the data transmitted by the Ministry of Health to be largely correct. “The numbers may not be entirely accurate from minute to minute,” Michael Ryan of the World Health Organization’s Health Emergencies Program told the AP. “But they largely reflect the level of deaths and injuries.” In previous wars or military campaigns, the ministry’s counts have been confirmed by the UN, independent investigations and even Israeli authorities. In this war, however, the figures are massively questioned by Israel.
The Palestinian Authority (PA) in the West Bank, which is controlled by Fatah, which rivals Hamas, considers the data to be valid. The PA pays the salaries of officials who collect data in the Gaza Strip and insists on their supervision. The local health ministry employs both staff recruited in the enclave since Hamas came to power and former Fatah officials.
Human Rights Watch said the casualty figures were generally reliable and that it had not found major discrepancies in its review of previous attacks on Gaza.
“It is worth noting that the figures released since October 7 are generally consistent or within logic for the level of killing one would expect given the intensity of the bombing in such a densely populated area ” said Omar Shakir, director for Israel and Palestine at the organization. They agreed with what was determined through witness statements, satellite images and other methods.
And who distrusts them?
Particularly after the rocket hit a hospital in Gaza, doubts arose about the credibility of the number of victims reported from the Gaza Strip. US President Jo Biden said in a press conference after the incident that he had no confidence in the numbers given by the Palestinians.
Within an hour, the Gaza Ministry reported 500 Palestinians killed, and the next day it reduced the figure to 471. Israel accused the ministry of having reported too high a number of deaths. U.S. intelligence agencies estimate the number of people killed at between 100 and 300, but did not say how the number was determined.
The figures from the Hamas health authority should be viewed with caution, said Lieutenant Colonel Richard Hecht, spokesman for the Israeli military. However, he repeatedly declined to provide alternative data on Palestinian casualties.
Luke Baker, the former bureau chief of the Reuters news agency in the region, also warns against uncritically adopting the ministry’s information: Hamas has a clear propaganda interest in setting the number of civilian casualties as high as possible, he writes on X.
There was a time when the ministry’s numbers could be relied upon, Baker said. “The doctors and administrators knew what they were doing and were professional about it.” However, Hamas has eliminated all honesty and probity in the 16 years it has been in power in Gaza. Any health official who does not report the death toll demanded by Hamas risks serious consequences. “Therefore, at least a certain amount of skepticism is required given the rapidly updated and often round death tolls,” warns Baker.
With information from the agencies Reuters and AP.