House and street fighting in the densely populated coastal area could become bloody. There are also many dangers lurking there for Israel’s army. And what will become of the hostages?
The Israeli government’s decision has long been made, and the army leadership leaves no doubt about it. “We will achieve what is necessary with fighting spirit and determination to bring security to our people for many years to come,” said commander Or Volozhinsky of the 188th Armored Brigade, referring to the “next phase of the war” in the Gaza Strip.
It’s about the ground offensive in the densely populated coastal strip. It is a military operation with risks and dangers for the civilian population, but also for the thousands of Israeli soldiers who have gathered on the border with the Gaza Strip with its 2.2 million people.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had to find an answer to the massacre on October 7th in Israeli towns near the Gaza Strip that left more than 1,400 dead. After what hundreds of terrorists have done on behalf of the Islamist Hamas, Israel sees the group’s complete dismantling as the only possible response. But heavy air strikes will not be enough. Or as Chief of General Staff Herzi Halevi said on Saturday: “We will enter the Gaza Strip for an operational, professional mission: to destroy Hamas operatives and infrastructure.”
Hamas atrocities put government under pressure
Since the Israeli airstrikes began, more than 4,650 people have died and thousands have been injured in the Gaza Strip, according to the Hamas-controlled Health Ministry.
Given Hamas’s atrocities, Israeli commentators have little doubt that the soldiers will act decisively. “Never have I seen such a strong will to go into battle,” wrote the military correspondent for the Israel Hajom newspaper. “They (the soldiers) understand that there is simply no other choice.”
Thousands of Hamas fighters suspected in the Gaza Strip
The balance of power between the two warring parties is already very unequal. Israel’s army is considered one of the best in the world and is estimated to have more than 170,000 soldiers. It also recently mobilized around 300,000 reservists. Even if the ground offensive were to start, not all of them would invade the Gaza Strip, says military historian Danny Orbach from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. According to Israeli estimates, Hamas had around 30,000 fighters before the terrorist attack on Israel. More than 1,000 terrorists were killed during and after their massacres in Israel, and hundreds more were taken prisoner. Orbach estimates that there are actually only around 15,000 fighters. Other militant groups in the Gaza Strip also provide several thousand fighters.
Expert: Hamas will try to kidnap Israeli soldiers
Despite their numerical inferiority, the militant Palestinians have a major advantage: they know the terrain, emphasizes Orbach. “Hamas will plan ambushes and attempt to kidnap Israeli soldiers.” According to the historian, fighting took place on several levels during the offensive. “There is upper Gaza, where the civilians live, and underground Gaza, where there are kilometers of militant tunnels.” Israel’s armed forces must therefore expect mined tunnels that could become a death trap.
“But it’s not just the individual weapons that are crucial,” says the military expert. Even in Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, the Russian troops, which were rather poorly equipped – according to Orbach – managed to adapt their tactics to good and new weapons. Israel’s army, much better armed, will adapt to Hamas’ methods. Hamas is preparing for a lot, said military chief Halevi. “But we are also preparing for them.”
Bloody battles in densely populated areas
Orbach fears that the urban warfare in the densely populated part of the Gaza Strip will become bloody. “There will be a lot of collateral damage.” This military formulation refers to victims among the civilian population. Israel’s military has therefore repeatedly called on the population in the northern Gaza Strip to leave the area to the south – but there is no supply there for the displaced people and there are attacks there too.
Even more houses in Gaza will be reduced to rubble, as Orbach suspects – also in order to get to the Hamas members and kill them. According to Orbach, the ground offensive will be accompanied by air and artillery strikes.
Hamas’ comprehensive tunnel system
The underground tunnels from which Hamas operates are estimated to be hundreds of kilometers long. Orbach does not believe that a large part of the so-called metro was destroyed in the clash between Israel and Hamas in May 2021, as the army claimed at the time. The group, which is classified as a terrorist organization by Israel, the USA and the EU, has the ability to quickly rebuild underground passages, quarters and weapons depots.
In order to completely destroy the system, the army will, according to the expert, track down the tunnels using, among other things, aerial photos and listening devices that can locate voices in the corridors. The terrorists arrested in the massacres are also currently being questioned for information about the tunnels. Since there may be hostages kidnapped from Israel there, the military historian suspects that the army will not flood them.
Hostages as a bargaining chip for Hamas
Whether the army will otherwise show consideration for the people held in the Gaza Strip in its attacks depends on whether it knows anything about their exact whereabouts, says Orbach. Israel’s army says it currently assumes that most of the at least 212 people kidnapped in the coastal enclave are still alive. The expert is not optimistic about the future: “Hamas will probably kill many hostages if the army moves in and wants to free them.”
The military historian assumes that a first phase of the intensive fighting could last around six weeks, provided that the Lebanese Shiite militia Hezbollah does not intervene more heavily in the war and open another front in the north.
What comes after the war?
Israel’s last major ground offensive in the Gaza Strip began on July 17, 2014 – ten days after the start of massive air strikes. The armed conflict lasted almost two months in total. But back then, the goal was not the complete destruction of Hamas.
It is also unclear at present what Israel’s plan is for the period after the conclusion of a possible ground offensive in the Gaza Strip. In any case, it will take a while until Hamas’ military capabilities and rule are eliminated, said Orbach. He then sees two options: “Either an international consortium or another Palestinian organization will take over the fate of the Gaza Strip.”