Voting in mid-May: This is the situation before the NRW election

After the Bundestag elections, national political attention is primarily focused on the smaller issue: the elections in NRW in mid-May. It could be a tight race for power. What is the starting position?

The state elections in North Rhine-Westphalia seem to be linked to the last federal election in an almost fateful manner. Without the disaster of the Union under Armin Laschet, former head of government in Düsseldorf, Hendrik Wüst (46) would probably not have been elected the youngest prime minister of the most populous federal state.

And without the surprising success of the SPD under Olaf Scholz, the Social Democrats would probably still be looking for political self-confidence in their former home country. According to the latest polls, there are signs of a tight race for power on the Rhine for May 15. From Berlin’s point of view, too, it is likely to be a test vote on the work of the federal government.

Prime Minister Wüst has been sure-footed so far

Prime Minister Wüst was able to set himself apart from his predecessor in style without letting the continuity in the black-yellow coalition break off. There have also been hardly any changes in personnel in the State Chancellery. Wüst has understood that the most important thing is to avoid mistakes. While the Rhinelander Laschet raised the targeted excursion into the faux pas to a state-political art form, Westphalian Wüst has so far been sure-footed.

He is controlled, tries to formulate things clearly and speaks in short sentences, if sometimes a little woodenly. The presidency of the Prime Ministers’ Conference fell into his lap, just at the right time. Because it offers him a stage to gain notoriety and appear statesmanlike.

Awareness is not a value in itself, one often hears in Düsseldorf these days, but something like the necessary prerequisite for popularity. The heads of government usually dominate national politics. For the newcomer Wüst there is a chance if he succeeds in slipping into the role of the country’s father by May. Even when time is short.

Most recently, he was very businesslike. “People in North Rhine-Westphalia expect us to get them out of the pandemic,” said Wüst. “They have no understanding for election campaigns these weeks.”

Challenger Kuchaty in attack mode

Challenger Thomas Kutschaty sees it differently. “The election campaign is on,” said the SPD politician after his nomination. The former Minister of Justice under the Red-Green Party has now become the undisputed number one in social democracy.

That was not always so. Kuchaty (53), like Wüst a lawyer, had to assert himself. He only won the chairmanship of the parliamentary group in a contested vote, and he also had to work hard to win the state chairmanship of his party in tough internal disputes. Kuchaty has government experience, is always aggressive and likes bold language: “You always like to talk about high beams,” he said to Wüst during a pandemic debate in parliament. “But I’ll tell you something: you urgently need to go to the workshop. Your headlights are broken.”

The political situation in Düsseldorf has become more complicated since the general election. Traffic lights rule in Berlin, the CDU is now in opposition to the FDP, with which it forms a coalition in Düsseldorf. Promptly, at the beginning of Wüst’s term of office, there was a lot of rattling when the newly elected prime minister, as a political warm-up exercise, so to speak, banged on the traffic lights.

The Liberals, who had recently voted him into office, found that anything but amusing. But the CDU and FDP emphasize that they would like to continue governing together after May 15.

Political easing exercises

Nevertheless: Shortly after the federal elections, the parties in the Düsseldorf state parliament were actually practicing relaxation. The SPD praised FDP ministers, even the Greens and Liberals, notoriously antagonistic in North Rhine-Westphalia, seemed to be getting closer. A rare spectacle. In general, there was a growing realization that there was a certain probability that future government would only be possible in the form of a tripartite alliance. But this thaw was short-lived, and the Greens and Liberals have attacked each other violently in recent weeks.

The Green faction leader accused the FDP of populism and warned that it was dangerous to adjust the relaxation of corona to the FDP’s appointment calendar. That sat. The FDP faction leader retaliated by declaring that if he had been in Boris Palmer’s place, he would have left the Greens voluntarily long ago.

Liberals see themselves as drivers

The liberals in NRW have enough worries of their own. School policy is one of them, probably the biggest. In the pandemic, school minister Yvonne Gebauer (FDP) was unable to set a convincing course. Most recently, chaos surrounding the right test strategy in schools caused trouble.

Joachim Stamp, the FDP family minister, deputy prime minister and top candidate of his party, is currently struggling primarily with the polls. Even after four and a half years in office, his level of recognition is modest, although he is clearly trying to gain visibility in the country. The FDP attaches great importance to having governed well in recent years, and sees itself as the substantive driver of the coalition.

Greens show realism

The Greens are the only party represented in the state parliament to have a top candidate in the running. Mona Neubaur is the state leader of the party, but not a member of the state parliamentary group. She comes from Düsseldorf local politics. Neubaur refrains from appearing as a candidate for the office of head of government. Nevertheless, she wants to achieve the “historically best election result in a state election”.

The Greens are primarily concerned with government participation. That is the political realism of a party that focuses primarily on its core issue. In the coal state of North Rhine-Westphalia, which is facing a huge transformation process in industrial and energy policy, they believe they will find sufficient sounding board for this.

NRW for AfD not a sure-fire success

Unlike in the east, the state elections in North Rhine-Westphalia are not a sure-fire success for the AfD. Although the party has been in the state parliament for four and a half years, it has already lost ground. Not everyone is on board in the parliamentary group for a long time, and disputes have also recently shaken up the state association.

With Markus Wagner, the leader of the parliamentary group is now the top candidate, and the party has also recently been led by a member of the state parliament, the doctor Martin Vincentz. The AfD was conspicuously avoided by the other parties during the legislative period. The AfD does not have a deputy post in the state parliament presidium either, but has received a lot of calls for order.

In North Rhine-Westphalia, it is emphatically middle-class, but also has national-conservative, völkisch or extremist forces in its ranks. If the pandemic policy does not play a major role before the election, the party will certainly ask itself about a mobilization topic.