It is insufficient. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimated this Sunday that the non-binding commitments announced at the start of COP28 by more than a hundred countries and oil companies would not be enough. By 2030, they would only achieve 30% of the necessary reduction in energy-related emissions to achieve carbon neutrality, according to her.
The IEA analyzed the potential impact of two voluntary commitments announced with fanfare on December 2. That of 130 countries (but not China) to triple renewables and improve energy efficiency by 2030 and a charter signed to date by 52 oil and gas companies to reduce methane leaks, in particular.
Four billion tons
The agency estimated before this COP28 that energy-related emissions would be around 38 billion tonnes of greenhouse gases in 2030. The above voluntary commitments, if fully implemented, would reduce these emissions of 4 billion tonnes, or only 30% of what would need to be achieved by 2030 on the road to carbon neutrality in 2050.
“While the commitments are a positive step in tackling greenhouse gas emissions from the energy sector, they will be far from enough to meet international climate targets, particularly the goal of limiting warming to 1. 5°C,” writes the IEA in its analysis, published two days before the end of COP28. The voluntary commitments announced at the start of COP28 are not binding, unlike the text under negotiation under the aegis of the UN, in which around a hundred countries want to include a call to abandon fossil fuels (coal, oil, gas) .