Visit to Kiev: Erdogan’s tightrope act

Arms deliveries to Ukraine and at the same time not damaging relations with Russia – this is the balancing act that Turkish President Erdogan faces during his visit to Kiev. Erdogan is therefore trying to act as a mediator.

“Above all, we want peace to prevail in the region. We are ready to do anything for that!” With this attitude, according to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, he is going to Kiev. Before that, he wanted to contact Russia’s President Vladimir Putin – initially by telephone. After the Winter Olympics in China, there will be a face-to-face meeting in Turkey.

First of all, Putin rebuffs Erdogan after his mediation offer. But Erdogan offers himself again and again: “We can be the mediator for peace between Russia and Ukraine. I have told both Mr Zelenskyy and Mr Putin that we are ready to do our duty in this matter.”

Extensive arms deals

Erdogan is likely to be interested in defusing the conflict between Russia and Ukraine in several respects. After all, Turkey is supplying combat drones to Ukraine – they are also to be produced in Ukraine in the future. Likewise, naval vessels are on the Turkish sales list. Arms exports are an important industry for the country. When Russia complained in Ankara about the arms sales to Ukraine, it was only stated succinctly that the buyer, not the seller, was responsible for what was done with the arms.

But for Turkey it’s not just about arms deals or a certain political stance because of NATO membership, write Turkish foreign policy experts like ex-diplomat and university professor Yalim Eralp:

Multiple interests in Russia

Erdogan certainly does not want to risk a confrontation with Russia. Large quantities of gas come from there to Turkey, which has few raw materials. In addition, Russian companies are currently building Turkey’s first nuclear power plant. This is not the only reason why Russia should also be interested in good relations with Turkey. Because: Turkey buys the Russian air defense system S-400. As a result, the NATO country is unlikely to get American F-35 fighter jets.

In its search for an alternative, Ukraine could help Turkey, at least by supplying parts for its own fighter jet. Publicly, Erdogan does not go into such detail. But he makes it absolutely clear how important both countries, Russia and Ukraine, are for his country:

The Syrian factor

On top of that, Turkey also needs Russia in Syria. There, the countries support different warring parties. But a protection zone in northern Syria in front of the Turkish border is also supported by Russia. If that were no longer the case, Kurdish militias could attack Turkey again from there.

So there are plenty of reasons of their own for Erdogan’s mission. Should he actually be successful, that would certainly only do his reputation in NATO good.