In the US budget dispute, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Kevin McCarthy, announced a draft for interim financing shortly before the feared shutdown. The Republican said on Saturday that the Chamber of Congress would vote on a bill to keep government running for another 45 days. At the time of McCarthy’s announcement, the shutdown was only twelve hours away (Sunday 6 a.m. CEST).
If this draft also fails, then the US federal authorities will be faced with a budget freeze, commonly known as a “shutdown”. In the largest economy, hundreds of thousands of public servants are then threatened with unpaid compulsory leave. Numerous offices, museums and national parks will then have to be closed, at least temporarily. It would be the fourth shutdown in a decade and the 15th since 1981.
For McCarthy, his last-minute attempt at an agreement carries significant political risk. He originally discussed with Democratic President Joe Biden what federal funding should look like starting with the new fiscal year on October 1st. However, a group of around 20 ultra-conservative Republicans in the House of Representatives refuse to support McCarthy.
Complicated majority relationships
On Friday, another proposal put forward by McCarthy failed because of these Republican rebels. In the USA there is no faction requirement and the Republicans have a comparatively small majority in the congressional chamber with 221 votes to 212. This leads to a complicated situation. Democrats’ drafts are rejected by the Republican majority. Republican designs have a chance, but only if all Republicans actually vote for them – or if Democrats also vote for the proposal. They have not done this so far because the drafts repeatedly provide for significant savings in the Democrats’ heartfelt projects. In the current draft, for example, financial and military support from the USA for Ukraine in the war against Russia is completely missing.
It is unclear whether all Democrats will remain firm in the face of the imminent shutdown. Even if McCarthy can get his draft passed, things will likely be uncomfortable for him. Republican rebels have threatened to overthrow him if he pushes a proposal through the House with Democratic help. In order to adopt the now proposed transitional regulation in a timely manner, an accelerated procedure is necessary that requires a two-thirds majority – so McCarthy would in any case be dependent on the support of the Democrats.
Any draft would still have to be confirmed by the Senate anyway. Biden’s Democrats hold the majority there. However, the Congressional Chamber is pursuing its own draft, on which further procedural votes were planned during Saturday. Only once Congress as a whole has passed a unified bill can it be presented to the President for his signature.
The dispute in Congress takes place against the backdrop of the election campaign. At the beginning of November 2024, not only a new president will be elected, but also a third of the Senate and the entire House of Representatives. A central question for MPs is therefore who citizens would blame in the event of a shutdown. While Biden has called on MPs to come to an agreement, his main Republican rival, his predecessor Donald Trump, has called on ultra-conservative MPs to hold on.