No news about the Iowa caucuses begins without the American metaphor of the moment: “frozen.” The cornfields and roads were frozen at minus 30 degrees on the day of the first primary election in Iowa, and the Republican favorite’s huge lead among the presidential candidates also appears to be frozen.
Donald Trump is leading according to the newspaper’s most recent and highly regarded poll Des Moines Register with 48 percent. Nikki Haley follows far behind with 20 and Ron DeSantis with 16 percent. Now the tension is high as to whether Trump can convert his poll lead into an equally clear victory in the Iowa caucuses on Monday evening.
In Iowa there are only six votes up for grabs for the 538-person Electoral College, which will formally elect the US president at the end of the year. Nevertheless, a preliminary decision could be made this time in the Midwestern state. If Trump wins by a landslide, it will be hard to catch him – the man who has several criminal cases on his hands, attempted a coup three years ago and is now cracking jokes about wanting to rule like a dictator.
Why the Iowa caucuses are good for surprises
The state has always been good for surprises in recent US election history. Iowa, population 3.2 million, pig population 24 million, has a special political culture. The Republican primary, for example, takes place in the form of “caucuses.” These are citizens’ meetings that begin in more than 1,500 community centers, sports halls and schools at 7 p.m. local time (2 a.m. CET).
How will the harsh winter weather affect participation? In Iowa temperatures can reach minus 30 degrees.
(Photo: JOE RAEDLE/Getty Images/AFP)
First, representatives of the candidates give short speeches, then voting takes place using ballot papers that are evaluated on site. The results will be sent via the Internet to the headquarters of the Republican Party of Iowa, which will announce the result on Tuesday evening local time on your website want to publish.
Trump’s campaign team is clearing the snow
The surprise factors are numerous. The freezing temperatures could play an important role in this. Usually only around 20 percent of those eligible to vote take part in the caucuses; the Arctic conditions are likely to reduce participation. Trump’s campaign team has therefore provided snow clearing vehicles and off-road vehicles to drive his fans to the meeting places on time. The former president is betting that the winter weather will benefit him because his base is enthusiastic: Almost 90 percent of his supporters have described themselves in surveys as very or extremely enthusiastic about Trump. Nikki Haley’s score is a much more modest 39 percent.
Trump’s opponents can count on help from the Democratic camp. This time the Democratic Party primary in Iowa will take place as a postal vote and will not end until March, with Joe Biden almost certain as the candidate. That’s why Democratic partisans and uncommitted voters have temporarily registered with the Republican Party to prevent Trump from being nominated again. It is difficult to predict how important this group is, since voters can only register at the caucus location. All US citizens who are at least 18 years old and reside in Iowa are eligible; a US passport and a utility bill are sufficient as proof.
This time the ex-president has the religious on his side
If Trump still receives more than 50 percent of the vote in the caucuses in Iowa, his nomination at the party conference in the summer is almost certain. To cement this impression, he tries to break the previous local record: Bob Dole won in 1988 with a twelve percent lead. If Trump doesn’t surpass him, it would be a sign of weakness.
In the polls he is even ahead by 30 percent, more than any other candidate before him. The former president benefits from the support of numerous evangelical opinion leaders who play an important role in deeply religious Iowa. Things were different in 2016, when Texan Ted Cruz relegated Trump to second place.
DeSantis has to come out strong or it’s over for him
However, some influential pastors and Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds have sided with Ron DeSantis. The governor of Florida promises to govern like his political godfather Trump, but without chaos and drama. Their programs are therefore very similar: DeSantis promises to reduce immigration, ban controversial books and teaching content from schools, reduce support for Ukraine, build up military forces against China and expand economic defense measures.
His program is almost identical to Trump’s: Ron DeSantis on the weekend with supporters in Des Moines.
(Photo: Pablo Martinez Monsivais/AP)
The 45-year-old has built his campaign on a surprise win in Iowa. He has visited all 99 districts in the past few months, but according to surveys he has lost around half of his support. If DeSantis doesn’t finish second in Iowa, the race is over for him.
How Nikki Haley Trump could still be dangerous
Nikki Haley, the former governor of South Carolina, is more likely to win second place. The 51-year-old has become the preferred candidate of Trump’s opponents among the Republicans. Although she worked in his first government, she has now clearly distanced herself from him and is running with a more classic Republican program: less government, lower taxes. According to polls, Haley would have a better chance than Trump and DeSantis of beating Democrat Joe Biden in the election on November 5th.
To do this, Haley not only has to do well in Iowa and keep the gap to Trump under 15 percent, but also a week later in New Hampshire. There, in the northeast of the USA, the area election will take place next Tuesday as the “Primary”.
Presumably she will be the runner-up: Nikki Haley on her Iowa promotional tour in Des Moines.
(Photo: BRIAN SNYDER/REUTERS)
Unlike caucuses, primaries are state-organized primaries in which citizens cast their votes at polling stations, usually on voting machines. Participation is usually slightly higher than in caucuses, between 20 and 30 percent. In New Hampshire, four in 10 voters did not identify with a party; They can decide for themselves which party they will take part in the primaries with. Haley is particularly well received by this group, while Trump is particularly poorly received.
South Carolina will show whether Trump is the candidate at the latest
Haley has recently gained ground in New Hampshire, topping 30 percent in polls; Trump leads with around 43 percent. With strong results in Iowa and New Hampshire, Haley is looking to narrow the gap in her home state of South Carolina. So far, Trump is at just under 55 percent, Haley at 25 percent – but she has to win the primary on February 24th in the state that she ruled as governor in order to still have a chance against Trump.
The decision usually comes on or after Super Tuesday, when more than a third of the Electoral College electors are determined in more than a dozen states. This time Super Tuesday falls on March 5th. The primary election then formally ends with the party meetings in the summer, in which the Republicans and Democrats formally determine their candidates for president and vice-presidency, who will stand for election on November 5, 2024.
Joe Biden’s adventures in New Hampshire
New Hampshire is also likely to provide some exciting insights for the Democrats, even though President Joe Biden is not taking part in the primaries there. Biden called for his party to start the primaries on February 3 in South Carolina in the South. However, the Democrats in New Hampshire refused, which is why the 81-year-old does not even appear on their electoral list. His supporters still want to vote for him, which is why the situation is now quite confusing.
If his only challenger with some political experience, Congressman Dean Phillips, performs surprisingly well in New Hampshire and wins over 30 percent of the vote, he might be able to embarrass Biden after all. However, it is virtually impossible that Biden could suddenly withdraw his candidacy.
What do the primaries mean for independent candidates?
If Biden continues to weaken and Trump secures the Republican nomination as expected, a window for a third-party candidacy may open. Robert F. Kennedy Jr., scion of the well-known political dynasty, a former Democrat and now financed by Republican donors, has already entered the race. The 69-year-old is making a name for himself with his idiosyncratic positions, such as his resistance to Covid vaccinations. Cornell West, a 70-year-old philosophy professor and so far the only African-American candidate, is fishing on the left spectrum. Both are considered outsiders, but could take away important votes from the two main candidates.
The only thing that could shake up the election is the “No Labels” group, which has been working on a non-party candidacy for months – according to recent speculation, it could try to port Nikki Haley. But it’s more likely that Haley would try again as a Republican in four years. “No Labels” has opened its own campaign fund, but it is tiny compared to the bulging pots of the two major parties and their fundraising organizations. According to forecasts, almost three billion dollars will flow into advertising for the 2024 presidential election.