Cluster munitions are a feared weapon. The projectile shatters into dozens of smaller explosive devices that are spread over an area of more than three football fields. Not only soldiers, but also civilians come under fire – and this for generations. Because a significant proportion of cluster munitions do not detonate immediately, entire regions remain contaminated with duds. Children in particular pay a high price for this, even decades after the end of the war. 123 countries have therefore outlawed cluster munitions with the Oslo Convention.
Nevertheless, US President Joe Biden has decided to have cluster munitions for howitzers delivered to Ukraine – “not permanently, but for a transitional period,” as he explained in an interview on Friday. The United States has not signed the convention, nor have Ukraine and Russia. In the ongoing war, both the defenders and the attackers have used cluster munitions, human rights organizations have criticized. Meanwhile, Ukrainian stocks appear to be running low. Kiev has therefore been demanding more ammunition and equipment for a long time. The demands have become more urgent because the counter-offensive in the south-east of the country is making slow progress, partly because Russian cluster munitions are raining down on the Ukrainian soldiers. With the help of American shells, Ukraine hopes to drive the other side out of the trenches.
Biden has hesitated for months to hand over cluster munitions to Ukraine. Now, however, stocks of conventional artillery shells in the USA and among NATO allies are running out. The United States, on the other hand, still has about five million cluster munitions in stock, both artillery shells and rockets. They have used these regularly since the Korean War in the 1950s, but they no longer procure new cluster munitions either. Although the country did not want to be bound by the Oslo Convention, since 2017 Congress has severely restricted its use and delivery: They are only permitted if the proportion of duds is less than one percent. The US President can override this to protect national security interests.
The American President is aware of how sensitive his decision is
American government officials assured on Thursday that they would only give Ukraine ammunition with a low error rate: the grenades for the M864-According to the Ministry of Defense, howitzers shatter into 72 pieces, of which exactly 2.35 percent are duds. However, it refuses to publish the studies. According to the Congressional Research Service, manufacturers put the error rate at 3 to 5 percent, deminers estimate it at 10 to 30 percent.
The US government’s reassurances demonstrate that Biden is acutely aware of how sensitive his decision is. Domestically, the consensus that Ukraine should be supported has been surprisingly stable so far. Criticism mounts as the war progresses, however, and the supply of cluster munitions to Ukraine now undermines the argument that the US is helping the good versus the bad in the conflict.
The United States is also making itself vulnerable in foreign policy by putting internationally banned ammunition into circulation. The majority of NATO countries, for example, have joined the Oslo Convention. Biden will have to explain himself accordingly when he travels to Europe at the weekend to attend the NATO summit in Vilnius next week.
The federal government has signaled understanding. Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said after a working meeting in Bern that Germany would not supply cluster munitions because it had signed the Oslo Convention. Government spokesman Steffen Hebestreit defended the Americans: “We are certain that our US friends did not take the decision to supply the appropriate ammunition lightly.” Part of the language rule is that the cluster munitions are used in “a special constellation”: “Ukraine is using munitions to protect its own civilian population. It’s about a deployment by its own government to liberate its own territory,” Hebestreit said. “So we should also remember that Russia has already used cluster munitions on a large scale in a war of aggression against Ukraine that violates international law.”
It shouldn’t be a coincidence that the White House is simultaneously raising hopes of an end to the war. Former US diplomats have made contacts in Moscow for peace talks, NBC reported this week. CIA director Bill Burns also spoke about it during a visit to Kiev: The Ukrainians told him that Russia would agree to negotiations if their troops approached the Crimean peninsula. That presupposes that the counteroffensive makes headway – thanks to American cluster munitions.