The war in Gaza caught Joe Biden off guard. The conflict also poses particular domestic political dangers for the US president, who has to go through an election in a year. Will it be his downfall?
The message to Joe Biden is unmistakable: No ceasefire in Gaza, no votes in the election. The open letter that the National Council of Muslim Democrats sent to the US President a few days ago was entitled “Ultimatum.” If Biden doesn’t reach a ceasefire in the Gaza war by the next day, he will lose votes from Muslims across the country – the alliance will make sure of that. The deadline passed without the blunt threat being successful.
There is no sign of a ceasefire in the war between Israel and Hamas. And for Biden, the conflict is increasingly becoming not only a foreign policy crisis but also a domestic policy crisis.
Some may dismiss the ultimatum letter as a provocation from a rather small party organization. But he is an example of a larger problem: Biden is under increasing pressure from various sides in the Middle East conflict and is in a political quandary that could be dangerous for him in view of the election in a year.
Biden’s course
Since the devastating attack on Israel by the Islamist Hamas on October 7, Biden has stood firmly on the side of the Israeli government. In the worst massacre in the country’s history, more than 1,400 people were killed on the Israeli side and more than 200 were forcibly abducted. Since then, the Israeli military has been bombing the Gaza Strip, where Hamas holds sway. Israeli ground troops are also advancing in the densely populated coastal area – with the aim of destroying Hamas. The residents of Gaza suffer. According to the Hamas-controlled Ministry of Health, more than 10,000 Palestinians have already died.
The number cannot be independently verified. But the world sees shocking images from Gaza every day. Of streets that lie in rubble and ashes; of bodies being pulled from rubble; of children covered in blood, their bodies torn apart; of desperate people in emergency shelters. With every picture and every day, the pressure on Biden is growing to advocate for a ceasefire and not to stand unconditionally at the side of Israel’s government.
Biden and his government are trying to adopt an increasingly nuanced tone, calling for the protection of civilians, repeatedly describing the suffering of the people in Gaza and advocating temporary ceasefires. But so far the US government has been vehemently against a general ceasefire, arguing that it would only play into the hands of Hamas. Biden has so far refrained from publicly criticizing Israel’s actions or pointing out red lines for his partner. After an unprecedented attack like that by Hamas, the US must be fully there for Israel, they say.
Protests on the streets
Critics complain that the US government is achieving nothing with gentle appeals to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu – Biden must use his influence and not stand idly by and watch the suffering of the Palestinians. It is simmering everywhere: among Democrats in the party, in Congress, in government, in social groups, among political donors and, above all, among voters.
Over the weekend, tens of thousands of pro-Palestinian demonstrators took to the streets in Washington demanding a ceasefire. A few days earlier, demonstrators repeatedly interrupted a hearing with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken in the Senate. They also called for a ceasefire and chanted that the American people were unwilling to finance Israel’s brutal war.
Resistance in government and party
Officials in Biden’s government apparatus are now organizing themselves to express resistance to the president’s line in internal letters. Government officials say behind closed doors that they are struggling with Biden’s course. A senior State Department official publicly resigned and declared that he could no longer support the “blind support for one side.” A younger State Department employee made headlines when she publicly accused Biden on Platform X of being complicit in a “genocide” against the Palestinians.
Left-wing Democrats in the House of Representatives have been calling for a ceasefire for weeks, with Democrat Dick Durbin recently becoming the first senator to join in. Dozens of employees in the Democratic party apparatus also wrote a letter calling on Biden to enforce a ceasefire.
Lack of understanding among Muslims
Muslim and Arab groups are also exerting pressure. The Council on American-Islamic Relations, for example, called on Biden to stop the “madness” in Gaza. It is “unacceptable” that the government is not calling for a ceasefire. Representatives of the organization threatened Biden with withdrawing their support in the election.
The National Council of Muslim Democrats also specifically announced in its ultimatum that it would urge Muslim and Arab voters not to vote for “any candidate who does not support a ceasefire.” And: “We emphasize the importance of Michigan, Ohio, Iowa, Florida, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Tennessee, where many of our voters live.”
It is estimated that there are about 3.5 million Muslims living in the United States – that’s only about one percent of the population. But thanks to the American electoral system, the presidential election at the beginning of November 2024 could once again be decided by comparatively few votes in a few states. In such “swing states,” which are very competitive between Democrats and Republicans, Biden cannot afford to alienate individual groups of voters. According to polls, Biden has actually lost some support among Arab and Muslim voters in recent weeks. And the topic has long since stirred up other groups, especially younger people.
On the other hand, some Jewish voters who want full support from Americans may feel repelled by the Democrats’ internal disunity over the Gaza war. In short: Biden can hardly please anyone in terms of domestic policy.
Foreign policy dangers
In terms of foreign policy, all of his government’s previous progress in the Middle East is evaporating. In addition, the Gaza war threatens to degenerate into a larger conflict. Attacks by pro-Iranian militias against US forces in Iraq and Syria have increased significantly in recent weeks. The US military is seeking deterrence by deploying equipment and hundreds of troops to the region to prevent the US from sliding into a new war just before the election. The election is still twelve months away – an eternity in political time. But depending on developments, the Middle East conflict could play an important role in the election.
Biden’s political situation was not easy before the Gaza war. The oldest US president of all time, who will soon be 81, has long been struggling with poor popularity ratings and reservations about his old age. Even among party colleagues there is a lack of enthusiasm for his re-election campaign – and no one in the Democratic Party seems really sure whether Biden can win the election in November 2024. The escalation in the Middle East has made his situation significantly more difficult.