In the US, the primaries for the midterms are in full swing. It is becoming increasingly clear that with their focus on abortion rights, the Democrats could succeed in stopping a blue wave in the fall. Whether that will be enough to secure Congress remains uncertain.
For a long time, political observers in the US had little doubt that the Republicans would retake Congress in the midterm elections in the fall. President Joe Biden’s approval ratings were in the basement, the bills announced by the Democrats failed one after the other in the Senate and inflation would do the rest to send voters straight into the arms of the “Grand Old Party” (GOP). to drive.
But then came June 24 – and with it a historic decision by the Supreme Court that was to stir up the mood in the country. “Roe v. Wade” – the verdict that had secured the right to abortion in the United States for almost 50 years – had been passed. The cards were reshuffled for the Democrats. Because as much as the decision was celebrated in conservative circles, it gave the liberal forces a new boost.
With its abortion ban, the conservative Supreme Court had created the perfect campaign issue for the Democrats. And there are increasing indications that they could break the feared “blue wave” in November.
USA: Fight for abortion rights on the ballot
The most recent example is this strong performance of the Democrats in the special area code in New York’s 19th constituency, a hotly contested rotating district at the foot of the Hudson River. A special area code because the previous Democratic MP had taken over the office of vice governor. And a rotating district, because the majority there voted for Barack Obama in the 2012 presidential elections, four years later his successor Donald Trump won – and the district went to Joe Biden again in 2020.
In the current election campaign, Democratic candidate Pat Ryan placed abortion rights at the center of his campaign. He accused his Republican rival Marc Molinaro of representing “extreme” positions and wanting to restrict women’s rights. In the end, Ryan successfully prevailed – surpassing Biden’s narrow victory two years ago.
A special area code would be meaningless. But since the controversial Supreme Court verdict, the Democrats four out of five such special area codes decided for themselves. Even in Alaska, where the count is still ongoing, things are not looking good for the Republicans. To have any chance of retaking the House of Representatives in November – let alone winning the Senate – they need to do better than they did in the 2020 election. But the wind seems to be about to be taken out of the blue sails.
Midterms 2022: What speaks for the Democrats …
In the last few weeks, Joe Biden has finally been able to present tangible political successes to voters. With a series of passed laws – expanding health insurance, measures to combat the climate crisis and tightening gun laws – the President has now followed up his promises during the election campaign with deeds. Last week he announced that the government would waive part of the repayment of the massively high student loans in the USA – a long-standing concern of his party base.
The signed legislation also gives new impetus to Democratic candidates battling for seats in the House of Representatives, the Senate (where a third is up for election) and governorships across the country. While Republicans have accused them of being “a Congress that does nothing,” they can now point to real domestic successes. Even the currently falling fuel prices are benefiting Biden’s party. For many Americans, the high cost of gasoline was living evidence of everyday inflation. The GOP’s favorite campaign issue is now taking a hit.
In addition, the FBI raid on Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate and the confiscation of dozens of secret documents (the star reported), which ex-presidents have put back into the limelight. Although many Conservatives at the top of the party would probably have preferred to see him in the background. On the other hand, the investigations that have become public played into the hands of the Democrats, who are doing everything they can to portray the Republicans as an extremist Trump party. For the first time since autumn last year there is according to polls, a slim majority of voters who prefer Democratic over Republican control of Congress.
And yet, for all the positive news for Democrats, there’s still the inevitable math of the midterms.
… and what for Republicans
An unwritten law in the US states that the party that puts the president in the White House must always fear for their majorities in the Midterms. For Republicans, the redistribution of constituencies—and their seats in parliament—driven by Donald Trump is now bearing fruit. In addition, there have been a number of resignations by democratic MPs. The Democrats currently hold 220 seats in the House of Representatives, the Republicans 211 – so they actually need nine more. Actually. But with four of the nine seats left without a Democratic incumbent to defend them, the Conservatives end up having to only gain five.
It is still a bit early to draw concrete conclusions about the distribution of Democrats and Republicans from the polls of the decisive races. Many candidates are still unknown faces and the campaign for the Midterms is just getting started. “Majorities are won in November, not August,” says Michael McAdams, director of communications for the National Republican Congressional Committee. to the point.
And yet there’s one poll metric Republicans have relied on for months: the president’s waning popularity. Even if this has increased slightly recently, Joe Biden is currently on the same level 42.3 percent agree still far below the levels of his predecessors. Quite a few in the GOP are betting that the unpopular president of his party will hang like a log in the primaries.
Election campaign gaining momentum
So it’s no wonder that Joe Biden himself is also upgrading verbally. Last week he called on his supporters in Rockville near Washington to go to the polls at all costs in order to save the country from the “half-fascism” of radical Republicans and “literally save democracy again”. The GOP described Biden as a party full of “anger, violence, hatred and division”, while his Democrats stand for the “future” and for “unity, hope and optimism”.
In addition, the President reiterated his promise to enshrine the right to abortion in a federal law in the event of an election victory in the fall. Biden said the topic would shake up the “powerful power” of female voters in particular. And the data backs up his prophecy. A recent Pew Research poll showsthat 56 percent of registered voters say that the abortion issue will be “very important” to them in the midterm elections. In March it was 43 percent.
In fact, abortion rights are on the ballot in November. Whether it will ultimately help Democrats secure Congress remains to be seen.
Sources: “NYTimes“, “Washington Post“, “CNN“, “Pew Research“, “Five Thirty Eight“, with AFP footage