The flags of the USA and France, Great Britain and Germany stand on the stairs next to the red carpet in the Federal Foreign Office. US Secretary of State Tony Blinken came to Berlin from Kiev to coordinate with his colleagues on the transatlantic Quad, as diplomats call the format. The French department head Jean-Yves Le Drian also flew in specially, and hostess Annalena Baerbock can welcome Minister of State James Cleverly from London, whose boss Liz Truss is in turn visiting Australia.
It should have been a renewed, high-level signal of unity before Blinken meets his Russian colleague Sergei Lavrov in Geneva this Friday. In Washington, the promise of a face-to-face meeting was taken as an indication that Russia is still interested in negotiations, despite all the harsh public statements that further talks with the West are pointless.
For the phone call in which the meeting was arranged, Lavrov had to leave the joint lunch with Baerbock in Moscow early. The US State Department linked the appointment in Switzerland with the hope that the threat of Russian troops invading Ukraine might still be averted.
But now Blinken has to deal with what President Joe Biden threw up on the subject that night. A lot sounds different than the unity between the NATO countries, the members of the EU and the G7, which Baerbock evokes again in the joint press conference on Thursday afternoon. There are differences on how to react if President Vladimir Putin only orders a smaller invasion, Biden said in a press conference. “My guess is he’ll go in,” he added. “He has to do something.” That sounds very different than the cautious optimism from Blinken’s environment.
In Ukraine, President Zelenksi reacted bitterly
Not only in Berlin are diplomats severely irritated by these statements by Biden, who has already triggered a storm of protests in Eastern Europe with a said announcement. A few weeks ago, as he boarded his helicopter, he announced that he would be negotiating with Moscow together with NATO’s most important European allies. Since then, there hasn’t been a statement from the Americans in which they don’t assure us that they won’t decide on Ukraine without Ukraine and that Europe’s security will only be discussed when the Europeans are at the table.
On this side of the Atlantic, diplomats also praised the close coordination, also on Thursday. In Kiev, on the other hand, where Blinken is from, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy bitterly tweeted that he wanted to remind the great powers that “there are no small invasions” or small states. Just as there are no minor victims and relatives mourn not just a little. “I say this as the President of a great power,” the tweet concludes.
Blinken tries to straighten out what his boss has said without openly contradicting him. He understood Biden to mean that, like the US secret services, he still assumes that Putin has not yet decided whether he will order an attack on Ukraine, he says at the Federal Foreign Office. In any case, the US would see any border crossing by Russian troops as aggression. And that would entail a “rapid, serious and joint response” from the western allies.
The meeting with Lavrov was a “crucial fork in the road,” says Blinken
Baerbock and he, who met in person for the third time on Thursday, try to pass the balls. “We agree that the only way out of the crisis is a political one, and that only leads through dialogue,” said the Federal Foreign Minister. “Unfortunately, Russian behavior continues to speak a different language.” She then “unmistakably” reaffirms the position of the United States and the Europeans and calls on Russia “urgently to take steps to de-escalate.” Blinken stressed that whichever path Russia chooses, it will find the United States and its allies united.
Blinken speaks of a decisive fork in the road with a view to his meeting with Lavrov. Putin can choose between conflict and consequences or diplomacy and cooperation. The different negotiation formats of the past week helped to identify the areas to talk about. Baerbock makes it clear once again what is not up for discussion: “the European peace order, which is existential for us”. Blinken has reaffirmed the US commitment to Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, the US State Department said. In the Kremlin, however, they will dissect exactly who feels bound by it and how much.