The fight for the Republican presidential nomination in the USA becomes a duel unusually early. What does Ron DeSantis’ withdrawal mean for Donald Trump’s chances of success against his last internal party opponent?
Surprising turnaround in the US primary election campaign: Republican Ron DeSantis has withdrawn from the party’s internal race to run for president and has thrown his support behind favorite Donald Trump. This means that former President Trump only has one internal party competitor – the former US ambassador to the United Nations, Nikki Haley.
The next primary election in the state of New Hampshire this Tuesday is now a duel between the two. However, the 52-year-old is given little chance of prevailing against Trump in the primary elections. It is therefore becoming increasingly likely that there will be a new edition of the election campaign between Trump and the Democratic incumbent Joe Biden in the presidential election in November.
Fall of the bearer of hope
DeSantis gave up unexpectedly early on Sunday and declared his election campaign over. “I can’t ask our supporters for their time and donations when there is no clear path for us to win,” the 45-year-old said in a video he posted on the X (formerly Twitter) platform. Florida’s ultra-conservative governor was considered Trump’s most promising party rival months ago, but he quickly became disillusioned and continued to fall in polls. He struggled with being close to the people and was often accused of lacking charisma: events that had close contact with the electorate quickly seemed uncomfortable to him and small talk was difficult for him. His primary campaign was marked by appearances in TV debates that opponents described as “robotic.”
In the Republicans’ first preliminary decision in the state of Iowa in mid-January, DeSantis finished around 30 percentage points behind Trump and came in second place just ahead of Haley. After months in which he tried to distance himself from Trump and had to endure a lot of malice from his party colleagues in return, DeSantis now acknowledged the former president: “He has my support because we cannot go back to the old Republican guard. ” This includes Haley.
Last Woman Standing
The only woman in the Republican race is now the last person standing in Trump’s way in his campaign for the presidential nomination. Haley’s development in recent months is exactly the opposite of that of DeSantis: She started as an underdog and only achieved single-digit results in polls at the start of her election campaign. Little by little, however, she worked her way forward, performed confidently in the television debates with her party colleagues, overtook DeSantis in some polls and closed in ever closer to Trump. At the national level, however, she is still more than 50 percentage points behind her former boss – Trump had appointed her to the UN post at the time.
In New Hampshire – the state where all eyes will be on Tuesday – Haley is performing significantly better in polls. There the Republican could benefit from a more moderate electorate. If their chances are good anywhere, it will be in the small state in the northeast of the USA. A strong result there would give her a boost in the duel with Trump. A weak result, on the other hand, would be fatal for her campaign: If not in New Hampshire, where else should she be able to take on her opponent?
Haley’s challenges
It is unlikely that the ex-governor of South Carolina could make up the generally significant gap to Trump in the polls. Observers also assume that supporters of DeSantis, who has strategically positioned himself as a hard-right mover and shaker in recent years, are more likely to migrate to Trump. Haley is considered far more moderate than Trump, even if she does her best to shake off her image as a moderate (“I’m a hardcore conservative. I always have been.”)
After New Hampshire, particular attention will likely be paid to the South Carolina primary at the end of February. Although Haley has the home advantage there, she is far behind Trump in polls, by more than 35 percentage points. The former president secured support from key officials in the state, which is particularly painful for Haley. If she were to be paraded as a former governor in her home state by Trump, that could be the end of her.
Trump’s dominance
It is unusual for a primary election campaign to move towards a decision so early. Various Republican presidential candidates, including prominent figures like former Vice President Mike Pence, withdrew before the primaries even began. Several other candidates dropped out shortly before and after the vote in Iowa. All of this shows once again Trump’s dominance in his own party. Trump’s most loyal supporters declared the race over after his landslide victory in Iowa. And large parts of the party establishment appear to be increasingly resigned to the idea that there is no way around Trump.
For his most ardent supporters and those in the country blinded by Trump’s lie that his victory in the 2020 presidential election was stolen through fraud, the Republican has quasi-incumbent status. Nobody is more prominent than him, nobody has a hardcore base like him. Trump also has a resource-rich campaign machine that can now target Haley alone.
Attacks and counterattacks
Trump had recently increased the tone of his verbal attacks against Haley and called the daughter of Indian immigrants “Nimbra” – in reference to her birth name Nimarata Nikki Randhawa. This approach is reminiscent of Trump’s incitement against the Democrat Barack Obama. At the time, Trump questioned his qualifications for the highest state office by claiming that the first black US president with the middle name Hussein was born in Kenya. Obama was born in the US state of Hawaii. As was the case then, Trump is now accused of deliberately fomenting racist resentment.
Over the weekend, Haley also intensified her verbal attacks against Trump and questioned the 77-year-old’s mental suitability for another term in office. Previously, like other party colleagues, she had approached Trump rather hesitantly – so as not to scare off his base. It’s also entirely possible that she could be in line to become Trump’s vice president. Or she is trying to position herself as Plan B in case Trump stumbles over one of the four criminal cases against him that he is facing parallel to the election campaign.