It is actually considered certain that US President Biden will run for re-election. But a survey could put the 80-year-old under pressure: in five of six swing voter states he is well behind Trump.
“America’s leadership holds the world together” – when Joe Biden says sentences like this, as in his speech after the Hamas attack on Israel, then he is in his element. But you cannot win elections in the USA with global politics alone.
This was also made clear by the survey published by the New York Times last Sunday. In five of six swing states – the swing voter states that make the difference in every presidential election – Biden is currently well behind Donald Trump.
Political commentators like John King on CNN seem alarmed as rarely: “The president is in danger of losing in all the states that he turned in his favor last time. And the reasons are: disappointment with the economic situation and the question of whether he’s too old.”
“They felt better when Trump was in office”
The survey has also had a positive impact on members of Congress from Biden’s party: “It’s really scary,” says Jasmine Crockett, Democrat from Texas. “It’s about how people feel, especially about the economy. The data is objectively good, unemployment is low, inflation is falling. But people still think gas prices were lower, they felt better than Trump was in office.”
Since Biden announced that he would run again, no prominent Democratic voice has openly opposed it. The self-help author Marianne Williamson has no chance. The anti-vaccination activist Robert Kennedy now wants to run as an independent candidate. Congressman Dean Phillips alone made people sit up and take notice at the end of October when he announced that he would run against Biden in the primaries: “I have to do it,” Phillips said on CBS. “President Biden has done a spectacular job for our country. But it’s not about the past. The election is about the future.”
Several Democrats are positioning themselves more for 2028
The message is: Biden should make room for someone younger. Phillips is too unknown and low profile to have a chance himself. But political consultant and pollster Frank Luntz names several alternatives on CNN: “It could be Gavin Newsom, the governor of California, Cory Booker, senator from New Jersey, Gretchen Whitmer, governor of Michigan. They are all great candidates.”
Those mentioned officially support Biden. At the same time, they are already positioning themselves – for example by collecting additional campaign funds – for the year 2028, when Biden will definitely no longer be able to run. This means that Newsom or Whitmer are also available as replacement candidates for 2024 if Biden decides to withdraw on his own initiative. Then Vice President Kamala Harris could come into play again.
“They all won in the end”
But is Biden’s withdrawal realistic? Hardly, says Jim Messina, who organized election campaigns for Barack Obama. Bad polls a year before the election – this has happened many times, he emphasizes on CNN: “At the same time, George Bush was behind, Bill Clinton was behind, Barack Obama was behind. And they all won in the end.”
Tuesday of this week, election day in several states, also encouraged Biden to stay. In Ohio and Virginia, for example, his Democrats scored points on the issue of the basic right to abortion.
In the end, only one person could persuade Biden to withdraw: his wife. Jill Biden is considered the most important advisor in the background. But she too was recently quoted as saying: Who else will hold the Democrats and the country together? Only Joe can do it.