Crises, wars, climate protection: US President Joe Biden is actually not doing a bad job. But his poll numbers are poor – and then there is the age problem.
They have become rare for US President Joe Biden: appearances in front of supporters who cheer him on. Biden made such an appearance in November. He spoke to workers at an auto parts factory in Belvidere, Illinois. “My dad used to say to me: Joey, a job is about much more than the money at the end of the month. It’s about your dignity, about respect, about your place in society,” Biden said. The president hit the right note. The audience applauded enthusiastically.
Good economic data, poor poll numbers
Having created thousands of new jobs – that is one of the things that Biden himself sees at the top of his performance record. In fact, he has launched large legislative packages to renew infrastructure and for more climate protection. The latest economic data is good, the unemployment rate is low, the inflation rate is falling.
But Biden’s poll numbers are in the basement. Why? Because people are comparing today’s prices to pre-coronavirus prices, pollster David Schultz says: “For the average American who goes to the supermarket and buys a quart of milk or a dozen eggs, the prices are higher than six months ago. And certainly higher than during Donald Trump’s term in office. The same applies to gasoline prices.”
Higher living costs are always blamed on the incumbent president, says Schultz, who teaches at Hamline University in the US state of Minnesota. According to him, it is particularly dangerous for Biden that a majority of Americans say in surveys that the country is fundamentally developing in the wrong direction.
US President Biden at an event at an auto parts factory in Illinois in November.
The age problem
There is also an issue that hangs over Biden like a dark cloud: his age. “I think he’s too old,” says a 22-year-old passer-by who voted for Biden in 2020 – primarily to vote out Trump, as he emphasizes. “Biden has had his good moments. But now I would prefer someone younger,” said the student.
Election researcher Schultz says that Donald Trump is only four years younger than Biden, but Trump appears significantly more agile. Biden has always had a problem with stuttering and has never been a good speaker. He now also often seems unfocused: “He no longer exudes the kind of leadership that many expect from a President of the United States. People simply don’t have the feeling that he still has things fully under control,” said Schultz.
Many voters would have seen Biden as a one-term interim president four years ago. “And now there are the wars in Ukraine and between Israel and Hamas. These are challenges that Biden cannot directly control.” People are no longer really convinced that he is dealing with these issues appropriately.
Biden could score new points in 2024
Political scientist Julia Azari sees Biden much more positively. As soon as the election campaign gains momentum next year, Biden could gain new points, says Azari, who teaches at Marquette University in the state of Wisconsin: “The election campaign will offer him, as the incumbent president, a lot of opportunities to highlight his achievements. And also to deal with Trump in a way that has already benefited him in 2020.”
When asked about the fact that Trump’s legal problems and the many court cases actually seem to be helping him in polls, Azari says: “That may be true for the Republican party base. It is not true for the public as a whole.”
Biden will particularly benefit if issues that are advantageous for the Democrats, such as the basic right to abortion, come to the fore again: “The issue was more important in the 2022 congressional midterm elections and in referendums in several states than anyone could have imagined in advance. There is a cross-party majority for a certain level of abortion rights,” says the political scientist.
“The best president of my life”
If you ask passers-by on the street, there are also votes in favor of Biden among young voters. For example, because Biden is committed to stricter gun laws. “So far he is the best president in my life. He is fighting for my generation,” says a first-time voter whose school there was a fatal gun attack years ago.
A student, who will also be able to vote for the first time in 2024, adds: “Politics in America has become the choice of the lesser evil. And the lesser evil will probably be Biden.”
Biden himself is trying not to let his dissatisfaction about poor poll numbers show. He concluded his appearance in front of workers at the auto parts factory in Illinois with an appeal with which he ends almost all speeches: a call to unite the country instead of dividing it and to believe in the power of the United States: “We are the United States of America. There is nothing we cannot achieve,” he shouted to the crowd. The people cheered – at least for that moment.
Ralf Borchard, ARD Washington, tagesschau, December 25th, 2023 1:12 p.m