They really want to know: The rulers of the Arabian Peninsula are testing Joe Biden’s patience more than ever these days. Last week, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates in particular, leading members of the OPEC plus oil cartel, snubbed the US President with the decision to cut production volumes by two million barrels a day in November. In doing so, they support Russian President Vladimir Putin, who can fill his war chest with oil exports. On Tuesday, Biden announced consequences for the first time after his first “disappointment”. Speaking to CNN, he said it was time to reconsider relations with Saudi Arabia. Biden declined to explain which options he is considering, but said: “There will be some consequences for what they did with Russia.”
For Biden and the Democrats, the funding cut comes at the wrong time: the midterm elections are coming up in four weeks. They are regarded as a political mood picture, as an interim report for Biden, which could turn out badly in view of inflation. It is particularly annoying for Biden that he now has to record the trip to Saudi Arabia last July, which was controversial from the start, as a foreign policy failure.
The American public accuses Biden of overlooking the kingdom’s human rights abuses just to depress oil and gasoline prices. After the assassination of the Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018, the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, whom the US secret service identified as the client, was largely isolated from Western countries.
Who stood by the crown prince despite the Kashoggi murder? Trump
On Tuesday evening, Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan tried to de-escalate the situation by emphasizing that the decision had been made for “purely economic” reasons and that it was about market stability. Bin Farhan told the Emirati news channel al-Arabiya: “The Opec-plus countries have acted responsibly and made the right decision.” But observers believe that Saudi Arabia’s latest Opec-plus decision is aimed at influencing American domestic politics in favor of the Republicans just before the congressional elections. For them, the rising prices are perfect campaign ammunition. Polls show that most Americans blame Democrat economic policies for inflation and high gas prices.
Supporting this theory is the open secret that Riyadh is hoping to see former US President Donald Trump back in the White House in 2024. Trump chose Saudi Arabia as his first foreign post after his election in 2017, he concluded arms deals worth billions without bothering Riyadh with the issue of human rights, not even the assassination of Khashoggi, who lived in exile in the USA, could spoil the bilateral relationship. On the contrary: Of the Washington Post-Journalist Bob Woodward quoted Trump in his book “Rage” with the words that he had Mohammed bin Salman, called MbS for short, “saved his ass” in the Khashoggi affair”https://www.sueddeutsche.de/politik/.”I was able to get Congress to leave him alone . I was able to get her to stop doing it,” it reads.
Saudi Arabia seems fairly unfazed by recent Western rapprochement offensives: last December, French President Emmanuel Macron led the way and traveled to Riyadh, while Boris Johnson rushed to Saudi Arabia last March shortly after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine amid the energy crisis Arabia, US President Biden struggled to get to Jeddah in July and allowed himself to be carried away by a punch, and at the end of September Olaf Scholz shook hands with the crown prince, who had long since been rehabilitated. With the demonstrative visits, the western states hoped for a new start with the wealthy oil monarchy in view of the energy crisis, also to counter the Saudi rapprochement with Russia and China. That hope is now gone.
Apparently, the head of the Kremlin in the Gulf is considered a more attractive partner
Instead works this one scene between Putin and MbS, which took place at the G-20 meeting in Buenos Aires in December 2018, like an almost prophetic announcement of a geostrategic change in Saudi Arabia: Just two months after the murder of Khashoggi, the broadly grinning Putin approached the Saudi crown prince and lifted the Hands for a high five, they patted each other like pals, as if Putin were congratulating MbS on their new role as outsiders – while the other heads of state tried to give the crown prince a wide berth. On the traditional “family portrait” bin Salman is at the very edge.
Their relationship sometimes seemed downright chummy: Vladimir Putin and Mohammed bin Salman, here at the G-20 summit in Buenos Aires.
(Photo: Ricardo Mazalan/AP)
This isolation of the past four years, which the West now wants to end mainly because of its energy crisis – and not because Saudi Arabia would now respect human rights – seems to have left its mark on the young ruler. In the Kremlin boss, bin Salman sees a more reliable partner he can count on, come what may.
Middle East Institute golf expert Gerald M. Feierstein describes the latest Opec plus announcement as a “Saudi declaration of independence.” It shows that the national interests of the United States are no longer decisive for the Saudi leadership and that Riyadh is not interested in “turning the page on bilateral relations”.
And apparently Mohammed bin Salman is not alone in this attitude on the Arabian Peninsula. The influential President of the United Arab Emirates, Mohammed bin Zayed, paid a visit to Putin in St. Petersburg on Tuesday. In it, bin Zayed introduced himself as a possible mediator in the Russian war against Ukraine. In view of the protocol, the tone was friendly and familiar. Mohammed bin Zayed wished Putin a happy birthday, and the Kremlin chief replied with Schukran, the Arabic word for thank you. There seems to be a lot right now for which Russia’s rulers seem grateful to the rulers of the Gulf.