US Open – Casper Ruud-Karen Khachanov: A surprise semi-final, a golden chance to be seized

The context

Basically, the Russian had the potential to achieve it, that’s not the question. When you have won the Paris-Bercy Masters 1000 by successively beating four members of the Top 10 including Novak Djokovic in the final, you undeniably have some assets. But this stunt now dates back almost four years, and since then he had failed to live up to the expectations placed on him. His American tour on hard preparation had also not been convincing with eliminations in the eighth in Washington, in the 2nd round in Montreal and in the 1st in Cincinnati.

Now 31st player in the world, Khachanov certainly did not see himself going so far, but circumstances helped him a little (Jack Draper’s abandonment in the 3rd round) and he gained confidence. Faced with Pablo Carreño Busta, then especially Nick Kyrgios, he pulled out all the stops: two convincing victories at the end of five sets and no doubt the hope of going even further. Especially since no member of the famous “Big 3” will stand in his way.

Face to face

There was only one precedent between the two men: it was on clay in Rome in 2020. On his favorite surface, Casper Ruud then won in three sets (6-3, 3-6, 6- 1). Difficult however to really draw a lesson for this semi-final to come.

Their journey

Casper Ruud

1st round: beats Kyle Edmund [GBR] 6-3, 7-5, 6-2
2nd round: defeats Tim van Rijthoven [P-B] 6-7(4), 6-4, 6-4, 6-4
3rd round: defeats Tommy Paul [E-U/N.29] 7-6(3), 6-7(5), 7-6(2), 5-7, 6-0
1/8th final: beats Corentin Moutet [FRA] 6-1, 6-2, 6-7(4), 6-2
1/4 final: beat Matteo Berrettini [ITA/N.13] 6-1, 6-4, 7-6(4)

Karen Khachanov

1st round: defeats Denis Kudla [E-U] 3-6, 6-1, 6-2, 6-2
2nd round: defeats Thiago Monteiro [BRE] 6-3, 6-3, 5-7, 6-4
3rd round: defeats Jack Draper [GBR] on surrender 6-3, 4-6, 6-5 ab.
Round of 16: beats Pablo Carreno Busta [ESP/N.12] 4-6, 6-3, 6-1, 4-6, 6-3
1/4 final: beat Nick Kyrgios [AUS/N.23] 7-5, 4-6, 7-5, 6-7(3), 6-4

They said

Casper Ruud:Honestly, I’m a bit surprised to be in the semis here, but I’ve really developed my hard court game the last two years. And in Miami, I proved to myself that I could beat good players and go far in big tournaments on this surface. It is the Grand Slam that has had the most different winners in recent years. It’s possible to do it here in New York, it’s the city of dreams.”

Karen Khachanov: “Since Rafa (Nadal) was eliminated, the tournament has become quite open for all the remaining players, because everyone feels there is an opportunity to go for the trophy. I would say that it may have even allowed everyone to raise their level of play.”

Three stats to remember

1. This is the first Grand Slam semi-final reached by Karen Khachanov. Before this 2022 edition, he had never been in the second week at the US Open. He also played two quarters at Roland-Garros in 2019 and Wimbledon in 2021.

88. This is the number of aces struck by Karen Khachanov in this US Open. Only Nick Kyrgios, his victim in the quarter-finals, did better in this area (116). For comparison, Casper Ruud hit just 26, which doesn’t even put him in the top 20 of the tournament in this specific ranking.

48. It is in minutes the more time spent on the court by Casper Ruud compared to Karen Khachanov, even though the Russian played two matches in five sets against one for the Norwegian. Ruud and Khachanov have spent a lot of energy on the court as they took 15:28 and 14:40 respectively to reach this stage, but should both be as tired as the other.

Our opinion

For such a semi-final in such a context, we must admit: it is very difficult to have a definite opinion. If we follow the pure logic of the ranking and that of the last weeks and months, then Casper Ruud is the logical favorite. His consistency at the highest level, his solidity and his average level of play are superior to those of Karen Khachanov. Yes, but there are other less objective factors involved in a match of such importance.

Will the Norwegian have the place of world number 1 (which he could reach in the event of the final) in a corner of his head? She could over-motivate him as much as tense him up. Will his experience of a Grand Slam semi-final already reached at Roland-Garros give him an advantage? Or will Karen Khachanov play totally liberated after crossing the quarters for the first time, like Frances Tiafoe? The Russian is a man of (big) shots and his ability to afford free points on serve on this surface could make the difference.

Nevertheless, Ruud showed against Matteo Berrettini that the gunners did not intimidate him. His physical condition and stamina could be fundamental if the match were to last. For these latter reasons, he seems to be leaving with a slight advantage.

Our prediction: Casper Ruud in five sets.