US midterm elections: Pollsters’ concerns

It’s not looking good for the US Democrats in the opinion polls – but how reliable are the forecasts for the midterms? In 2016 and also in 2020, the pollsters were sometimes clearly wrong. Are you doing something different now?

Pollsters in the US have learned to be very humble. “In 2016 we were badly mistaken,” says Charles Franklin, a professor at Marquette University of Wisconsin, and he specifies: “I was badly wrong!”

Franklin was not alone. At the time, almost everyone in his branch saw Hillary Clinton ahead in the presidential election. But then Donald Trump surprisingly turned three important US states; that got him the presidency. In 2020, things got worse instead of better, says Franklin: “The errors seemed to be more widespread, and they included some Senate elections in the country, not just the presidential election.”

In Florida and North Carolina, for example, polls two years ago saw Biden clearly ahead. But who won in the end? Trump. In other states, such as Pennsylvania or Wisconsin, Biden won as predicted, but only just.

And the expected majority of the Democrats in the Senate? Shrunk down to a stalemate. Again, enthusiasm for Trump was underestimated, but enthusiasm for Biden was overestimated.

The Trump Factor

After evaluating their data, the pollsters now know why they were wrong. “People who supported Donald Trump or Republican candidates in general were less willing to take part in opinion polls,” says Scott Keeter of the Pew Institute, a Washington-based think tank. That means pollsters didn’t have enough Trump supporters in their polls.

And then there was the coronavirus. Would people stay at home because of the pandemic? Or vote because of Trump?

Predicting turnout is always difficult. “We ask people to vote,” says Keeter, “they know it’s a civic duty, so they say yes.” But in the end they don’t show up.

However, the pollsters do not believe that Trump supporters have hidden their sympathies. Her experience is that once they’re on the phone, many voters are only too happy to talk about their favourites.

Mood more precise now?

Pollsters are confident that the midterms will be better this time, partly because Trump is not on the ballot. Without him, mood shots seemed more accurate, says Professor Franklin of Wisconsin.

He and his team also increased their research time. A longer, seven-day field phase allows them to call a phone number three or four times in hopes of getting an answer.

Other institutes try text messages, which then lead to websites where voters can take part in a poll. But no one knows if they’ll end up getting the right mix of votes.

The themes are obvious

Pollsters know pretty well what moves Americans: inflation, crime and abortion are the issues. But how that translates into votes remains difficult to predict.

“We will approach this election with considerable humility,” says pollster Scott Keeter, and that will also apply to 2024, no matter who is on the ballot.