US midterm elections: “Most voting out of party loyalty”

A clear victory for the Republicans – this scenario did not materialize in the midterms. The US expert Thimm attributes this to the increasingly consolidated political camps. In an interview, he explains what this means for the coming elections.

tagesschau.de: DThe counting of the midterms is still ongoing and some things are still uncertain. What do you think are the key insights of this morning?

Johannes Thimm: The key takeaway from the congressional elections is that Republicans will win a majority in the House of Representatives, and that majority is in the middle of expectations. It was expected that there would be a very clear majority of Republicans in the House of Representatives – this does not appear to be the case.

The second takeaway is that it will be a very close outcome for the Senate. But that corresponds to the predictions. It is not yet clear who will win this chamber – every single seat counts. All in all, there was no big surprise.

“Good news” for Democrats

tagesschau.de: Does that also apply to the governors?

Thimm: The Democrats have won important governorships for them, that is, states that they had to win in order to be able to compete in future elections – Michigan and Wisconsin, for example. In addition to state politics, the governor elections are always about who organizes, controls and certifies future elections.

Looking ahead to the 2024 presidential election, it is important that these are governors who believe in an orderly election process and not the big lie of the stolen 2022 election. Here are the results from the states mentioned, but also good news for the Democrats from Pennsylvania.

“Specific factors” less important

tagesschau.de: One possible scenario was that there could be a landslide victory for the Republicans, a so-called red wave. That is not apparent. How do you explain that?

Thimm: We must first look at the starting position: President Joe Biden’s popularity has been consistently low over the past six months. Most people are dissatisfied with his administration. The reason is the state of the economy and in particular the high inflation. The president is always held responsible for both, although the economy as a whole gives a mixed picture, there is almost full employment, decent growth rates, but also very high inflation. In my opinion, the fact that the so-called red wave is unlikely to happen is due to the fact that most voters now vote according to party loyalty and are no longer so influenced by specific factors such as the state of the economy.

“The big swings are missing”

tagesschau.de: Democrats have bet heavily on the issue following the Supreme Court ruling on abortion rights. Did it work?

Thimm: The Democrats seem to have succeeded in mobilizing their voters and getting some of the swing voters to vote for the Democrats despite the supposedly bad economy. The issue of abortion may have played a role there, but the question of whether the Republican candidates are too extreme may also have played a role. But in general it can be said that the proportion of swing voters is becoming smaller and smaller and that is why there are no really big swings.

The importance of the right to vote

tagesschau.de: But that also means that democratic voting rights and an orderly process and the opportunity to participate in elections will become even more important than they already are.

Thimm: We are dealing with a situation where very few voters in very few states are making the difference. This has to do with American electoral law, the majority system and the two-party system. It is particularly important that the elections are conducted properly, especially when the outcome of the elections is close. Among Republicans, there have been many candidates who do not recognize the outcome of the 2020 presidential election and have dubious views about the integrity of elections.

tagesschau.de: But many of these are now entering the parliaments at state and federal level. What does that mean?

Thimm: This is worrying. On the other hand, the important swing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin have elected governors who will conduct elections properly.

“The quality of the candidates hardly matters anymore”

tagesschau.de: But it also shows that Donald Trump’s influence on the Republicans is unbroken, with long-term consequences.

Thimm: You can see the whole thing from two sides. One can say pessimistically that the Republicans have put up some extreme and unqualified candidates, also under the influence of Trump. The Republican majority leader in the Senate, Mitch McConnell, also complained about this in the summer. Still, Republicans are likely to win the House of Representatives. Nevertheless, some of the races in the Senate and for the governorship are very close – precisely because the voters have committed themselves so much to one party that the quality of the candidates hardly plays a role.

The optimistic view is that at key spots, the most extreme candidates, such as Republican Pennsylvania gubernatorial nominee Doug Mastriano, appear to have failed to gain ground. And where they did – let’s take Republican MP Marjorie Taylor Greene – it also plays a role that extreme candidates have secured the candidacy, especially in safe Republican constituencies.

The conversation was led by Eckart Aretz, tagesschau.de