Upcoming explorations: is it also about Steinmeier’s future?

Personnel issues are sensitive territory, especially for the Greens in recent times. But even Bellevue Palace does not seem to be free from the upcoming coalition haggling.

Around the speculation about new coalition options, rumors of a “secret Union plan” arose in Berlin a long time ago, with which the Greens would be more likely to get into a coalition if the Federal President were to be filled for the first time after a Green proposal – obviously then too for the first time with a woman. A name is also often included in media reports: it would then be able to be Katrin Göring-Eckardt. As early as 2016, her name was mentioned in speculations about the successor to the then no longer running Federal President Joachim Gauck.

So far, “KGE” has not been mentioned either officially or internally as the one green preferred candidate. Almost certainly she would be one of those who would be an option – should the question arise anytime soon. Through her term of office as President of the Synod of the Evangelical Church, Göring-Eckardt has a correspondingly appropriate image. But it would be questionable whether the Greens would not decide in favor of a person standing more outside the party within a three-party coalition – such as the former civil rights activist Marianne Birthler, who Angela Merkel initially proposed with the support of the Greens in 2016.

A new Federal President will be elected in February

In February 2022, the Federal Assembly will elect a new line-up for Bellevue; the first term of office of Federal President Frank-Walter Steinmeier ends in March. The Federal President proposed by the SPD, but also supported by the Union and FDP, announced in May of this year that he would like to run again.

With his early decision he took the risk of not being elected. Because at the end of May, the majority of the Federal Assembly was still a long way from being foreseeable, the SPD’s polls were still well below 20 percent, especially in the cellar. “There is no certainty in a democracy, not even when it comes to the election of the Federal President,” Steinmeier stated in May – but he does not consider this to be a flaw, but rather the strength of democracy.

Motive: independence?

His main motive was probably to openly state that he had taken a great interest in this non-partisan communicative official role. The former SPD candidate for chancellor and GroKo foreign minister is leaving his party book inactive. In addition, however, he may already have in mind that Bellevue should not become a bargaining chip so soon after the general election.

In the case of a Jamaica coalition, this could be part of the last legs of the negotiating package: This would be conceivable as the last step, so it is considered by those involved if the substantive agreement has already been reached – and only finally about the right to propose political proposals Positions and post distribution in the cabinet goes. Theoretically, it could also affect Bellevue, offered by the Union within a Jamaica alliance to the Greens in order to get them into the black-and-yellow alliance they do not prefer. However, then at least FDP leader Christian Lindner would have to overturn, who already promised Steinmeier his support for a second term in May.

Representative offices currently subordinate

But even the Greens will not need the headline to have exchanged a representative office in the coalition bazaar for a few grams less climate protection. Should there be a traffic light coalition – for which the Green leaders, including Göring-Eckardt, speak out – a possible next SPD Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, will respect Steinmeier’s wish for a second term of office rather than backing him fall.

“In view of the contentious conflict situation in the upcoming coalition negotiations, it would be purely symbolic politics to negotiate the office of Federal President,” said the political scientist Wolfgang Schroeder in an interview tagesschau.de. In the end, that might be “the cherry on the cake” – but on the other hand, even that is unlikely: “If it were necessary, it would be clear from the start what clayey feet the coalition is on.”