It was a Friday of big references and even bigger quotes. First, the badly hit Düsseldorf gas trader Uniper became a kind of revenant of the US investment bank Lehman Brothers, the systemic bomb of the year 2022, so to speak. Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) then gave Mario Draghi, at least a little, and promised: “We will do what is necessary and for as long as it is necessary.”
Okay, in his historic speech as head of the ECB ten years ago, Draghi promised to do everything to save the euro (“whatever it takes”). Scholz, on the other hand, only announced relief for citizens, which is why it had to be a size smaller here. But the bottom line was this Friday: The situation is serious, otherwise why should the federal government invest billions of euros in the rescue of the energy supplier and get into it with 30 percent?
Now, historical comparisons in business are mostly difficult. But it is not very far-fetched to compare the dangers of a possible collapse of the Düsseldorf-based gas trader with the bankruptcy of the investment bank Lehman Brothers. The collapse of the US institute in 2008 provoked a global domino effect, triggering the global financial crisis and threatening to blow up the financial system. Uniper, on the other hand, as one of the largest European gas suppliers, has what it takes to break down the basic coordinates of the energy system. If Uniper’s business model – buying cheap Russian gas and passing it on to customers such as municipal utilities and industrial companies – continued to implode because of the war in Russia, the effects would be devastating, especially for private households. Uniper is not Lehman. But concerns about a Lehman effect are justified. Whatever it takes.
The citizens sit in the lifeboat
The fact that the gas importer will soon be able to pass on its higher purchase prices for gas to consumers shows that the citizens are in the lifeboat twice. Once as a gas customer, a second time as a taxpayer. Although there should be relief for this, a housing benefit reform with a flat rate for heating costs is on the way. But they also cost the state money. And nobody knows yet how Moscow’s gas games will continue in the coming months and what this means for the development of the gas price.
Thomas Fromm sometimes wonders how one could become so dependent.
(Photo: Bernd Schifferdecker)
Is this all at the expense of the citizens? Scholz says it could be “a success story” for taxpayers. If he were referring to the rescue of Lufthansa, the comparison would not be really happy: Lufthansa did not end up in the crisis because of a failed business model, but because of a pandemic. When and if the gas business will become normal again and Uniper will take off again? Very difficult questions. The situation is all the more tragic because the federal government, as the savior in an emergency, also shares responsibility for the disaster. Uniper, the largest German buyer of Russian gas, had become dangerously dependent on Moscow over the years. Politicians looked on and largely let Putin do as he pleased. Now the people of Düsseldorf have to pay the bill for what has been a very comfortable dependency for years.
It is also not entirely unlikely that Uniper is just the beginning, a first, major and well-known victim of the gas crisis in Europe. Because the company is not alone. Other energy companies have already secured billions of credit options from the KfW bank. The federal government will do everything to stabilize the industry, said Scholz. Yet again: Whatever it takes. But if you look at the throttled gas supplies in Moscow these days and the tactical maneuvers of the warlord Vladimir Putin, you know that all of this can still get quite expensive. For all.