More than two years before the next regular federal election, the question of the chancellor candidacy is once again making the rounds in the Union. The most promising candidates play for time.
Markus Söder and Hendrik Wüst do not want to get out with the language when it comes to the candidacy for chancellor. As often as the CSU leader and Bavarian Prime Minister and his North Rhine-Westphalian CDU counterpart are asked about the topic, which is so tiresome for the Union, when they appear together in the Munich Residence, there is nothing really new to learn. This is not an issue at the moment, everyone affirms in unison. Only in late summer 2024 would the CDU and CSU decide the K question “together and uniformly”.
Just in time for the joint meeting of the cabinets of Bavaria and North Rhine-Westphalia, “Bild” published a survey by the Insa Institute, according to which 31 percent believe that Söder has a greater chance of success with a candidate for chancellor and only 21 percent with CDU leader Friedrich Merz. But the two heads of state deal with this as “snapshots”. “And if I may say so: The polls in Bavaria are the ones that are really interesting for me, because my job is Bavaria,” adds Söder, emphasizing that an “excellent agreement” on the candidate question will not fail because of him.
Power struggle destroyed all chances of winning in 2021
As much as Söder, Wüst and, shortly before, Merz in Berlin, try to keep the topic small on this day – more than two years before the next federal election, it has long been wafting through the Union again. Before the 2021 federal election, the power struggle between Söder and the then CDU leader Armin Laschet for the chancellor candidacy almost led to the breakup of the Union. And – the CDU and CSU agree on this – in the end it also deprived her of all chances of winning the elections.
If you listen to the Union in Berlin, there are at least two interpretations of the K question when it comes to Merz. On the one hand, it is said that the Sauerlander did not make three attempts at the CDU presidency in order to leave the chancellor candidacy to someone else. But there are also voices in the Union who believe it is possible that the 67-year-old Merz will ultimately give way to a younger and perhaps more promising candidate. Söder is 56, Wüst only 47 years old. For Wüst in particular, that means: He can wait.
The Union is currently between 27.5 and 31 percent in polls – and thus well ahead of the SPD with up to 20 percent or the Greens with up to 18 percent. But actually, some in the CDU and CSU believe, in view of the ongoing dispute between the traffic light partners SPD, Greens and FDP, one should already be at 33 to 35 percent.
The Union has been stuck at the 30 percent mark for a long time. Internally, there are also voices that see a reason for this at Merz: he is still not so well received by women and the younger generation.
Should this remain so until the decision on the chancellor candidacy is made, Merz could, with a waiver and a subsequently won election, claim to have rebuilt the CDU more or less selflessly after the disaster in the 2021 election. He would also have contributed to bringing the Union back to power after just one legislative period. The accusation of the ambitious would finally be off the table, the thanks of the Union sure.
Hendrik Wüst: Governing with black-green role model for the federal government?
Whenever there is speculation about the K question in the Union, the name Wüst automatically comes up. The Munsterlander represents a younger generation of politicians and has proven to be a winner. In 2021, in the most populous federal state, he succeeded Laschet at the head of the government and the NRW-CDU without a skirmish and won the election in 2022. Then he forged the first black-green alliance in North Rhine-Westphalia. With regard to the federal government, too, this would be a color constellation that many in the Union could imagine.
Markus Söder: Front against the Greens in the Bavarian election campaign
On the other hand, Söder has positioned himself against the Greens in the current election campaign in Bavaria more clearly than ever before in his career. Unlike Wüst, the Bavarian was also more or less clear about his ambitions in the K question: “For me, the Berlin chapter in the form of a candidacy is – I would say – definitely closed,” he said at the end of February. This applies “in every respect. The federal government is over.”
Friedrich Merz: Right of first access to the K question
As far as Söder and Merz push the debate away from themselves and their parties, the fact is: First it is Merz’s turn. Should he, as head of the large CDU and the Union faction in the Bundestag, claim his right of first access, nobody could dispute that. Without the benevolent support of the CDU leader, no successful chancellor candidacy is conceivable, no matter how much polls could speak a different language. The Union cannot afford another dispute over the K question if it does not want to alienate even more voters.
A power struggle would also damage the Union not only in the federal elections, but in early 2024 in the European elections. “Regardless of who it is – we are not holding a European election with a candidate for Chancellor who has already been nominated by the Union. That will not take place,” emphasized Merz in Berlin.
The question remains why CDU Vice Carsten Linnemann of all people recently told the “Spiegel”: “I think Friedrich Merz is the best candidate to bring this country forward again.” The parliamentary director of the Union faction in the Bundestag, Thorsten Frei (CDU), also called Merz an “excellent candidate” in “Spiegel” and warned of possible power struggles. In the CSU, many see the statements as “test balloons” and “exclamation marks”, which are aimed in particular at preventing an uncontrolled debate in which a name other than Merz would be called out loud.
At the moment, however, it does not look like that either within the CDU or in the CSU. There is currently no one in either party who is passionate about the issue. Only those who listen carefully will find formulations that put this into perspective. It is then often said that in the end the candidate for chancellor has to be the one with the best chance of victory. Sequel follows.