The increase is less rapid than during the summer but the number of unemployed continued to increase in France at the end of 2023. And the curve, which is more marked among young people, should continue to increase this year due to the weakness of the economic activity.
In detail, the number of unemployed (category A, without activity) increased by 0.2% in the fourth quarter throughout France (excluding Mayotte), after an increase of 0.6% in the third, according to figures published Thursday by the Ministry of Labor. The number of people registered with Pôle emploi (which became France Travail on January 1) without activity and actively looking for a job increased by 4,800 over the quarter to reach 3.033 million. Including reduced activity (categories B and C), the number of job seekers is up 1%, or 54,000 more registered, and stands at 5.406 million.
It is especially among young people that the phenomenon is present: the increase in people without activity is 5.9% over one year for those under 25, while unemployment has fallen by 0.6% for the elderly. from 25 to 49 years old. For seniors (50 years and over), it fell by 2.9% over one year but increased by 0.6% over one quarter.
Concerns related to the housing sector
In fact, unemployment is affected by the slowdown in economic activity with a certain lag. In December, the Banque de France anticipated a rise in the unemployment rate in France to 7.8% in 2025, while the French Observatory of Economic Conditions (OFCE) sees it at 7.9% at the end of this year, compared to 7.4% in the third quarter of 2023.
This rise is due to “a drop in economic activity linked to the increase in key rates from the European Central Bank,” explains Nathalie Chusseau, professor of economics at the University of Lille. As a result, “we anticipate a drop of 50,000 to 60,000 in the number of jobs” over the year 2024, she specifies.
Good news, the expected drop in inflation this year will lead central banks to put an end to the increase in key rates, which “will restore purchasing power to households and boost demand, therefore production and activity,” according to the academic. But “there is still a big black spot: the drop in activity linked to the housing sector”. The French Building Federation anticipates 90,000 job losses in 2024.